Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.353 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.333 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard
0.327 — Corey Dickerson batting against Christian Bergman
0.326 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin
0.325 — Dee Gordon batting against Patrick Corbin
0.323 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.323 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Patrick Corbin
0.320 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Patrick Corbin
0.320 — Mark Reynolds batting against Clayton Richard
0.320 — Matt Kemp batting against Bronson Arroyo
Richard is doing a better job this season of striking out batters and limiting walks, but that hasn’t stopped the hits against him. About the same number of hits in fewer PA means that he is a good pitcher for a streak extension, and the Rockies try to reap that boon Friday in San Diego.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.353, 0.763 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.327, 0.745 — Corey Dickerson batting against Christian Bergman.
0.323, 0.737 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.325, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.333, 0.737 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.296, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alec Asher.
0.320, 0.732 — Matt Kemp batting against Bronson Arroyo.
0.314, 0.731 — Buster Posey batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.320, 0.729 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Patrick Corbin.
Even adjusting for playing in San Diego, where the hit average is .223 (three year weighted), Blackmon still comes out on top. Blackmon does have a large three-year home/road split, so you might wish to take that into account. Note that even against a tough pitcher like Andrew Triggs, Daniel Murphy still manages to crack the top ten. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ryvimV
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