Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.291 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland
0.291 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel
0.285 — Jose Abreu batting against Jason Hammel
0.284 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke
0.279 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Freeland
0.279 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke
0.279 — Hernan Perez batting against Steven Brault
0.278 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Freeland
0.278 — Ryan Braun batting against Steven Brault
0.274 — Manuel Pina batting against Steven Brault

There is a light schedule today, and Log5 likes the Rockies against the Diamondbacks for producing hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.284, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.279, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke.
0.272, 0.721 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.
0.291, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.291, 0.716 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285, 0.715 — Jose Abreu batting against Jason Hammel.
0.273, 0.713 — Eric Hosmer batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.267, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting against Myles Jaye.
0.263, 0.706 — Corey Seager batting against Chris Stratton.
0.263, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.

The NN shows a preference for the Rockies. Blackmon and Peralta tie for consensus pick, and most days they are good picks anyway.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jayson Werth	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Allen Cordoba	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jorge Soler	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
A.J. Pollock	18
Jake Marisnick	18
Corey Dickerson	17
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Tom Murphy	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Jared Hoying	14
Yonder Alonso	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Yasmani Grandal	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
A.J. Ellis	14
Mark Trumbo	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Stephen Drew	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Logan Morrison	13
Adam Duvall	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Jarrod Dyson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Dexter Fowler	12
John Jaso	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Chase Utley	12
Jose Ramirez	12
JaCoby Jones	12
Martin Prado	12
Hunter Pence	12
Gavin Cecchini	12
Josh Donaldson	12
Alex Mejia	12
Joc Pederson	12
Starling Marte	12
Jorge Polanco	12
Evan Gattis	12
Cameron Maybin	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Kaleb Cowart	11
Justin Smoak	11
Eric Sogard	11
Jorge Alfaro	11
Freddy Galvis	11
Brian Dozier	11
Ryan McMahon	11
Mike Aviles	11
Marcus Semien	11
Brock Stassi	11
Jacob Lamb	11
Neil Walker	10
Tyler Saladino	10
John Hicks	10
Taylor Motter	10
Chris Taylor	10
Niko Goodrum	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Stuart Turner	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Miguel Montero	10
George Springer	10
Stephen Vogt	10
Jett Bandy	10
Zach Granite	10
Elias Diaz	10
Drew Butera	10
Tyler Collins	10
Thomas Pham	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Seth Smith	10
Efren Navarro Jr	10
Mitch Garver	10
Ronald Torreyes	10

Good luck!

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