Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.330 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dylan Covey
0.328 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.322 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Boyd
0.321 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.318 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Dylan Covey
0.316 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey
0.315 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey
0.314 — Dee Gordon batting against Nick Pivetta
0.304 — Austin Jackson batting against Matt Boyd
0.302 — Albert Almora batting against Robert Gsellman
Eric Hosmer is hot, and Dylan Covey allowed a .330/.403/.655 slash line this season, with 17 home runs allowed in 49 innings. This is also a rare Tuesday afternoon game, so if you are going to take Hosmer you need to get your pick in early. Note also that Jose Ramirez came out of last night’s Cleveland game with an injury, although it did not appear serious.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.295, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Garrett Richards.
0.330, 0.743 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dylan Covey.
0.314, 0.742 — Dee Gordon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.328, 0.740 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzalez.
0.292, 0.740 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.322, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.289, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
.294, 0.734 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sean Manaea.
0.318, 0.733 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Dylan Covey.
0.316, 0.729 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.
0.282, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Taijuan Walker.
The NN does a better job of smoothing out the small sample size noise of Dylan Covey, with Altuve popping to the top of the list. Hosmer is the consensus first choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2jkUA5P
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