Massive Tie Scenario

Sometimes I feel like there is a version of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle that applies to the massive tie race. The more you observe it, the less likely it is to happen.

The back of the pack in the American League lost Monday night, with the Mariners, Orioles, and Royals all falling. Those three teams are all under .500. The good news is that the Rangers won (beating Seattle) which does improve the chance for a three-way tie for the second wild card. I’ll stick with the five-way race for now.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning eight more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00021, down from Sunday:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	8-11
Angels	9-10
Rangers	10-9
Royals	11-8
Orioles or Mariners	11-7

The Rockies beat the Diamondbacks and the Brewers fell to the Pirates, so the chance of a four-way tie for the NL Central and the second NL Wild Card slot diminished as well. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning seven more games for a total of 86. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.0011. Here is the 86 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	7-11
Cubs	9-10
Cardinals	11-8
Brewers	11-7

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card and a three-way tie for the division buried in there. Each would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Royals defeat the White Sox.
• The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
• The Brewers win against the Pirates.
• The Mariners beat the Rangers.
• The Cubs can go either way against the Mets, with a slight preference for the Cubs winning.
• The Twins fall to San Diego.
• The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
• The Rockies lose to the Diamondbacks.
• The Angels can go either way against the Astros.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2w3IrrI