Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Jose Martinez batting against Clayton Richard
0.327 — Yadier Molina batting against Clayton Richard
0.326 — Paul DeJong batting against Clayton Richard
0.322 — Thomas Pham batting against Clayton Richard
0.318 — Magneuris Sierra batting against Clayton Richard
0.316 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Clayton Richard
0.314 — Kolten Wong batting against Clayton Richard
0.311 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.311 — Eric Hosmer batting against Kyle Gibson
0.310 — Melky Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson

Take a Cardinal against a Clayton!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.301, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.327, 0.734 — Yadier Molina batting against Clayton Richard.
0.311, 0.733 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.331, 0.730 — Jose Martinez batting against Clayton Richard.
0.311, 0.728 — Eric Hosmer batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.326, 0.726 — Paul DeJong batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.726 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.301, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.301, 0.720 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.322, 0.720 — Thomas Pham batting against Clayton Richard.

I extended the list a bit since Corey Seager is hurt, but not disabled. Once again, the NN smooths out the distortions caused by great single years like the one Jose Martinez is posting for the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is the consensus first choice, however.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Pablo Sandoval	42
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Andrew Benintendi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jayson Werth	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Brad Miller	21
Allen Cordoba	21
Jorge Soler	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tyler Flowers	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Miguel Cabrera	17
Nick Delmonico	17
Tyler Moore	16
Jose Altuve	16
Paul Janish	15
Tommy La Stella	15
Curtis Granderson	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Mike Trout	15
Francisco Cervelli	14
Anthony Rizzo	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Jake Marisnick	13
Stephen Drew	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Tom Murphy	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Luis Torrens	13
Manuel Pina	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Luke Maile	12
Paul Goldschmidt	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Andrelton Simmons	12
Pat Valaika	12
Martin Prado	12
Josh Donaldson	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Tommy Joseph	12
Byron Buxton	11
Luis Valbuena	11
Brock Stassi	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brandon Drury	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Jared Hoying	11
Franklin Barreto	11
Erick Aybar	11
Francisco Lindor	11
Carlos Moncrief	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Ryan McMahon	10
Kaleb Cowart	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yulieski Gurriel	10
Caleb Joseph	10

Good luck!

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