Massive Tie Scenario

The chance for a five-way tie for the second AL Wild Card slot increased slightly Tuesday night as the bottom two teams gained on two and three, but the top team won. The Twins unleashed a seven home run barrage on the Padres to take the game 16-0. The various four teams behind the Twins are very tightly bunched, but not has really made a dent in Minnesota’s lead over the last few days. The Mariners are now ahead of the Orioles, so Baltimore is not counted in the calculation. This can change from day to day.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning seven more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00024, up from Monday:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	7-11
Angels	9-9
Rangers	10-8
Royals	10-8
Mariners	10-7

All four NL Central/Wild Card contenders won on Tuesday night, so the probability of a four-way tie is just slightly better. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning seven more games for a total of 87. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.0011. Here is the 87 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	7-10
Cubs	9-9
Cardinals	11-7
Brewers	11-6

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card and a three-way tie for the division buried in there. Each would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Royals defeat the White Sox.
• The Mariners and the Rangers can go either way.
• The Cubs can go either way against the Mets, with a slight preference for the Cubs winning.
• The Brewers win against the Pirates.
• The Twins fall to San Diego.
• The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
• The Rockies lose to the Diamondbacks.
• The Angels beat the Astros.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xxAuvm