Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin
0.323 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.320 — Elvis Andrus batting against Mike Leake
0.320 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin
0.316 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez
0.316 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake
0.309 — Nolan Arenado batting against Patrick Corbin
0.302 — Avisail Garcia batting against Eric Skoglund
0.302 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez

Corbin is a rare pitcher, one with a high strikeout rate that also allows a high batting average.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.330, 0.760 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.320, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.323, 0.747 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.290, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.320, 0.739 — Elvis Andrus batting against Mike Leake.
0.316, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.316, 0.735 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake.
0.295, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Aaron Nola.
0.309, 0.732 — Nolan Arenado batting against Patrick Corbin.

Altuve pops to the top as usual, but Blackmon is the consensus first choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Yasmani Grandal	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Allen Cordoba	23
Jayson Werth	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Corey Dickerson	22
Jorge Soler	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jake Marisnick	18
Logan Morrison	17
Jacob Lamb	16
Marcus Semien	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
John Jaso	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Jared Hoying	14
Starlin Castro	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Elias Diaz	14
Neil Walker	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Vogt	14
A.J. Ellis	14
Tom Murphy	14
Miguel Montero	14
Cesar Puello	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Seth Smith	13
Efren Navarro Jr	13
Alex Mejia	13
Stuart Turner	13
Jarrod Dyson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Zach Granite	12
Martin Prado	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Ronald Torreyes	12
Evan Gattis	12
Gavin Cecchini	12
Mike Aviles	12
Joc Pederson	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Jett Bandy	11
Ryan McMahon	11
Ian Desmond	11
Brock Stassi	11
Drew Butera	11
Mitch Garver	11
Martin Maldonado	11
Guillermo Heredia	11
Miguel Cabrera	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Taylor Motter	11
Kaleb Cowart	11
Cameron Maybin	11
Tyler Saladino	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Willson Contreras	10
Ryan Braun	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Michael Moustakas	10
Brian W Anderson	10
Jean Segura	10
Paul Goldschmidt	10
Ryder Jones	10
John Hicks	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Rajai Davis	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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