Massive Tie Scenario

The chance for a five-way tie for the second AL Wild Card slot fell Wednesday night as the Twins continue to win. The Mariners moved past the Rangers into third place, but with the Royals losing, the gap between first and fifth increased, the main cause of the drop in probability.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning six more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00016:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	6-11
Angels	8-9
Mariners	9-7
Rangers	10-7
Royals	10-7

The Rockies lost to the Diamondbacks Wednesday night, while the Cubs and Brewers won. The Brewers passed the Cardinals, so the four teams are a bit closer top to bottom than the day before. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning seven more games for a total of 87. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.0013. Here is the 87 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	7-9
Cubs	8-9
Brewers	10-6
Cardinals	11-6

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card and a three-way tie for the division buried in there. Each would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

One problem in both these scenarios now is that the far trailing teams need to play very well to make up ground. In the AL, I think we are more likely to get a four-way tie between the teams trailing for the wild card.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
• The Rockies fall to the Diamondbacks.
• The Royals end the Indians winning streak.
• The Rangers beat the Mariners, although a Mariners victory would be better for a potential three-way tie.
• The Cubs and the Mets can go either way.
• The Twins lose to the Blue Jays.
• The Angels defeat the Astros.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2x2jdYd