Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.338 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brett Anderson
0.330 — Joe Mauer batting against Brett Anderson
0.327 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin
0.318 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Josh Tomlin
0.316 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.311 — Melky Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin
0.310 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Daniel Gossett
0.309 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin
0.309 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chad Bell

Log5 picks a number of Royals against Josh Tomlin. Maybe the Royals have a chance to beat the Indians today!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.344, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.316, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.338, 0.744 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brett Anderson.
0.327, 0.742 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.308, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Jake Thompson.
0.310, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.318, 0.735 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.297, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.309, 0.730 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chad Bell.
0.330, 0.729 — Joe Mauer batting against Brett Anderson.

Once again, it is an Altuve day, with Eddie Rosario the consensus second pick. Rosario is a high BA, low OBP player, the kind who is most likely to get a hit. Anderson allowed 52 hits in 39 2/3 innings with just 12 walks. A hit streak match made in heaven.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Yasmani Grandal	24
Allen Cordoba	23
Corey Dickerson	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jorge Soler	22
Logan Morrison	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
A.J. Ellis	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Seth Smith	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
John Jaso	15
Mike Aviles	15
Paul Janish	15
Evan Gattis	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Miguel Montero	14
Michael Moustakas	14
Tom Murphy	14
Cameron Maybin	14
Jared Hoying	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cesar Puello	13
Gavin Cecchini	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Efren Navarro Jr	13
Alex Mejia	13
Chad Pinder	13
John Hicks	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Stuart Turner	13
Jarrod Dyson	12
Matt Wieters	12
Travis Shaw	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Dexter Fowler	12
Charlie Blackmon	12
Zach Granite	12
Matt Davidson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Kaleb Cowart	12
Melky Cabrera	12
Martin Prado	12
Joc Pederson	12
Lonnie Chisenhall	12
Ronald Torreyes	12
Ryan McMahon	11
Taylor Motter	11
Jabari Blash	11
Mitch Garver	11
Jett Bandy	11
Ryder Jones	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Steven Souza	11
Drew Butera	11
Didi Gregorius	10
Manny Machado	10
Rajai Davis	10
Russell Martin	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Ryan Braun	10
William Middlebrooks	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Derek Fisher	10
Sandy Leon	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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