Jim Albert runs a simulation that gives Giancarlo Stanton a 47% chance of hitting 62 home runs this season. For some reason, Albert indicates that would set a record. It would not, since Stanton is not in the National League. I use a different method to predict the probability of 62 homers, and right now that stands at .246. So Stanton’s chance at at least nine more home runs is somewhere between 25% and 50%. The odds are good, but they are not a sure thing. As Aaron Judge and countless others have shown, home run droughts can come on quickly.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2eBvJp3
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