Friday, August 31, 2018

There Are No “Shortcuts”

One would think the notions of miracle cures and short cuts to success would have been dispelled decades ago.  It seems there is always some huckster promising “miracle cures,”

“Do these 5 things and customers will immediately buy—I’ll tell you the secrets to success for $99.95!”

“Say these 5 words to get customers to respond……”

“It only takes 4 discovery questions to maximize your success in engaging customers….”

“Buy this tool to drive response rates up by 500%…..”

Often, accompanying these enticing miracle cures is a picture of some one sitting in a private jet, driving their fancy car, dining at a famous restaurant, celebrating their success on a tropical isle.

We immediately think, “If only I do those things, I could be as successful as these people….”

There are hundreds of more genuine books, articles, courses, outlining the formulas the author has used to achieve success.  The claim is, “do what I’ve done, you can achieve the same results.”  While the author may have a method that “works,” generally it’s specific to certain situations—markets, customers, product types, or the author’s own ability.  Too often, when applied more generally, the approach fails.

As human beings, we are continually looking for the “formula” or “tool.”  If we only did these things, we would achieve our wildest dreams.  We spend billions, individually or organizationally, implementing the short cuts that have promised success.  We invest billions of hours in trying to emulate the lessons taught by these “experts.”

When they fail, we invest more time and money in looking for the next miracle cure–moving from one to another to another.

Sometimes we see temporary improvements.  But we can’t sustain them, or our situations are different.  What seemed to have been the magic solution ends up being no magic at all.

At least until now…….!

I’m here to declare, I have found the secret to all success.  (I’d take a picture in front of my car, but it’s been sitting at the airport for 2 weeks and needs to be washed.  Alternatively, in front of my house, but the lawn needs to be mowed……)

The secret to success is “Do the work!”

That’s it, it’s as simple as that—but if you want to send a check for $99.95, I’m glad to accept it and donate it to my favorite charity.

The reality is the real secret to success is doing the hard work, showing up every days, learning how to engage customers, learning how to listen, learning how to help them learn, learning how to create value with the customers, learning how you can help solve their problems, learning how to help them buy–from you.

We learn every day, we get our teeth kicked in, recover/adjust, move forward.  Over time, we consistently apply what works, discarding what doesn’t.  We refine our approaches, first focusing on effectiveness, then moving to efficiency.

Look at any sustained top performer, in any profession.  The commonality between each is they “Do the work.”  They put in their 10,000 hours, and keep going, learning, refining, executing.

They do look at what others have done–not searching for a miracle cure, but looking what they might apply to their expert practice.

There’s something magic about “doing the work.”  It actually works.  It’s not easy, but it works.  As we do it more, as we seek to improve, as we learn, it doesn’t get easier, but we execute it with more confidence and success.  We refine what we do, accomplishing more and more.

 



from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference https://ift.tt/2wEnfWW

Games of the Day

Milwaukee comes into Washington holding the second wild card slot. The Nationals are 7 1/2 games back of Milwaukee, with three teams in between. Needless to say, Washington needs a miracle, and a three-game sweep of the Brewers would be a required part of that. Jhoulys Chacin takes on Tanner Roark in game one. Chacin may be pitching the best season of his career. His 3.61 ERA is slightly better than the mark he put up in 2011. With a better team, he is 13-5 instead of 11-14. Roark tries to finish an outstanding August in which he’s gone 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five starts.

The Pirates at Braves offers a good pitching match-up as Jameson Taillon faces Anibal Sanchez. Taillon has been a bit of a road warrior this season, allowing five home runs in 83 2/3 road innings, while givin up ten home runs in 68 1/3 home innings. Sanchez owns a 3.05 ERA, and if he pitches well down the stretch could finish below 3.00 for the third time in his career.

Finally, the Diamondbacks try again widen their lead on the Dodgers as Zack Greinke faces Hyun-Jin Ryu. Greinke had a rough time through the middle of June, allowing a 3.90 ERA due mostly to a high home run rate. Since then he posted a 1.83 ERA, with a more reasonable home run rate. Ryu pitched just 45 1/3 innings this season, but he struck out 54 batters while walking just 12 batters.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2PRfJ3A

Grabbing An Outfielder

The Yankees are working on a deal for Andrew McCutchen:

The trade talks, first reported by Joel Sherman of The New York Post, were confirmed by multiple baseball officials with direct knowledge of the plans. The officials were granted anonymity because the move had not been made official.

McCutchen, who turns 32 in October, is a five-time All-Star who earned the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player Award with the Pittsburgh Pirates. This season, his first with San Francisco, he has hit .255 with 15 homers, 55 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases and a strong .357 on-base percentage.

The Yankees were said to be planning to send two prospects to the Giants, including Abiatal Avelino, a middle infielder with 15 homers and 25 steals this season between Class AA and Class AAA. Avelino, 23, was ranked as the Yankees’ No. 23 prospect by MLB.com.

McCutchen is not the devastating power hitter of his MVP years. Given his .357 OBP and his .415 slugging percentage, I would put him in the lead-off slot for the Yankees. Let him get on base for Stanton and the power hitters behind him. That’s what the Yankees need, as their #1 hitters own a .294 OBP in August. I also suspect Yankee Stadium will help with McCutchen’s power. It’s a good move, especially if Aaron Judge continues to heal slowly.

I find Avelino’s minor league numbers rather unimpressive.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2NyTD4g

Ohtani to the Mound

Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to start the game as a pitcher on Sunday:

Ohtani will start Sunday night in a nationally televised game against the first-place Astros, manager Mike Scioscia announced Thursday.

The start will come just under three months after Ohtani was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament.

“I always wanted to get back on the mound as soon as I could,” Ohtani said through his interpreter ( via the Orange County Register ), “especially with all our starting pitchers getting hurt, going on the DL, it made me want to get back out there even more. Hopefully, I can finish the year strong, with a month left, with no setbacks or injuries.”

I see this as a mistake. Ohtani might be an all-star as a hitter, and he likely will hit well enough to give the Angels a good return on their investment. If he blows out his elbow pitching, he will be lost to the team for at least a year, no bat, no arm. I felt the same way when Bo Jackson decided to play football. Why risk a long and profitable baseball career for a stunt?

I appreciate Ohtani’s desire to help his team. I appreciate that part of the draw of Ohtani is his ability to be a two-way player. I just think this is going to end badly. I hope I’m wrong.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2wwKLFO

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.326 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.326 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.313 — Harrison Bader batting against Homer Bailey.
0.312 — Yairo Munoz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.311 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.308 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.306 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305 — Javier Baez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Homer Bailey.
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.303 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.302 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.302 — Matthew Adams batting against Homer Bailey.
0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Kopech.
0.297 — Patrick Wisdom batting against Homer Bailey.
0.296 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.293 — Whit Merrifield batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292 — Austin Jackson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.290 — David Dahl batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.289 — Matt Carpenter batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Drew Hutchison.

Bailey actually pitched well against St. Louis this year, at least in the context of Bailey’s poor season. He is 0-1 in three starts with a 3.72 ERA against the Cardinals, and allowed 16 hits in 19 1/3 innings.

Jose Martinez is 5 for 13 against Bailey, while Adams, Carpenter, and Molina are even better.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.358, 0.762 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.310, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.326, 0.743 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.298, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Kopech.
0.311, 0.728 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.306, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.326, 0.723 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.305, 0.720 — Javier Baez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.308, 0.716 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.293, 0.716 — Whit Merrifield batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.303, 0.715 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.279, 0.713 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Quintana.
0.288, 0.713 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Kopech.
0.289, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.289, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.302, 0.709 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305, 0.707 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.281, 0.706 — Christian Yelich batting against Tanner Roark.
0.292, 0.703 — Austin Jackson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.275, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tanner Roark.
0.276, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Jameson Taillon.

Jose Martinez is the unanimous first pick. He is hit hot right now, with 33 hits and six walks in his last 23 games, striking out just 13 times. Murphy and Andujar are tied for consensus second pick.

Also note that Jean Segura was a late scratch last night due to a bruise.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2NBtnGH

Best Batter Today

The top five remain in the same order in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Alex Bregman extended his hit streak to 12 games with a single. Christian Yelich drew a walk to stay in second place. Mike Trout singled and walked to stay in third, J.D. Martinez hit his 39th home run to hold fourth, and Justin Turner singled and walked for fifth place.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2MDzmOC

Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2wuFhLX

Thursday, August 30, 2018

300 Club

Giancarlo Stanton homered in the third inning against the Tigers for the 300th home run of his career. In the 1990s, that would have put him well in the top 100 all time, but today it ties him with Chuck Klein for 146th on the all-time list. He is in the top ten for most home runs through age 28.

The Tigers and Yankees are tied at five at the stretch.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2PSZAdR

A Little Whining—When Will We Stop Thinking Buyers Are Stupid

I’ve been away from the blog for a bit.  Three continents in 10 days, sitting in yet another airline lounge waiting my next flight.  I’m clearing email that has piled up over the just completed transatlantic leg.

There are two I’ve just deleted from my inbox.  Each is from a supplier that I have had long relationships with.  Each is up to their annual demonstration of how stupid they think their customers are.

The first is my renewal to the Harvard Business Review.  I’ve gone through this annually for at least 10 years.  My current subscription is ending and they are encouraging me to renew.  I click on the link, I’m offered another year at a certain amount.  I go to the web site, looking and the subscription price for a new subscriber.  As has happened year after year, my renewal is 40% higher than if I subscribe as a new reader.  (Maybe they are trying to drive me away).  They even toss in a few goodies for the new subscriber.

Ironically, I devour every issue of HBR.  There are so many articles about the “new buyer,” how they are smarter, how they research, how we can’t take them for granted.  They publish articles about customer loyalty and retaining customers.  I read them closely.

It seems the managers of HBR don’t learn from their own magazine.

No problem, I still subscribe, except every year it’s as a new subscriber.  I’m really not as stupid as they think I am.

Another comes from my car leasing company.  They are playing the same games they play every 3 years.  I’ve bought the current version of the same car for about 20 years.  Every once in a while, I decide to be wild and crazy, and get a different color, most of the time I revert to black.

My lease is coming up.  I’ve been deluged with offers from the manufacturer’s finance company, as well as dealers knowing my lease is ending.  “Get the current model of your car for the same payment you are now making…….”

The problem is, the dealers they are pointing me to offer the same car for significantly less than the offer from the leasing company.  And that’s published offers, one wonders what the offer would be if I even breathed the phrase, “could you do better….?”

Perhaps, somehow these companies have been monitoring my traveling and think in a momentary jet-lagged stupor, I may accept their outreach.  But in reality, I think they really don’t respect their customers, thinking of them as stupid.  (You might ask, why do you keep buying–I do like the products, I know I will get them at a reasonable price, but I just have to wade through their stupidity.)

We know buyers are smart.  We know, through their entire buying process they continue to research and learn.  (HBR tells us this)

So if we know these things, why do so many companies continue to ignore this, and treat customers and prospects as idiots?

Whining over, perhaps some of this is the jet lag talking.  They are calling my next flight…….  (At least I’m restraining myself from whining about airlines, that would be too depressing.)



from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference https://ift.tt/2PPXb3F

Games of the Day

First place teams meet in Atlanta as the Cubs send Mike Montgomery against the Braves and Mike Foltynewicz. Montgomery made 13 starts and 19 relief appearances this season, but pitched much better as a starter. He posted a 3.08 ERA in that role, versus 5.13 in relief. Foltynewicz used his ability to strike out batters and good fielding behind him to limit opponents to just 108 hits in 145 innings pitched this season.

Seattle tries to hold on in the AL Wild Card race as they send Wade LeBlanc against the Athletics and Frankie Montas. LeBlanc balances his high home run rate with a low walk rate. Montas allows a .290 BA, but that drops to .232 with men in scoring position.

Finally, the tight NL West race pits the Diamondbacks and Robbie Ray against the Dodgers and Rick Hill. Ray allowed 15 home runs this season, but only two of those came on the road. Hill split his 14 home runs allowed evenly home and road.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Nyd1hK

Pujols Takes a Knee

Albert Pujols underwent knee surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2018 season:

The Angels announced Wednesday that Pujols has undergone arthroscopic knee surgery performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles. Recovery time is typically at least six weeks, and the Angels’ season likely will be over in 4 1/2 weeks.

Pujols is sixth in baseball history with 633 career homers after passing Ken Griffey Jr. last month. He is seventh in history with 1,982 career RBIs, just behind Lou Gehrig (1,995) and Barry Bonds (1,996), and close to becoming only the fifth member of the 2,000-RBI club.

For the second year in a row, Pujols owns an OBP well under .300. He continues to drive in runs, as he still does not strike out very much, but those come at a high cost of outs. He still has three years left on his contract.

If you want to know why teams are hesitant to sign great 30 year old plus players to long term contracts, Pujols is the poster child. Teams should up the average annual salary in exchange for shorter lengths.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2LFNMbx

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Nolan Arenado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.329 — Jean Segura batting against Frankie Montas.
0.328 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eric Lauer.
0.326 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.324 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eric Lauer.
0.323 — Gerardo Parra batting against Eric Lauer.
0.317 — Trevor Story batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310 — David Dahl batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.298 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.298 — Dee Gordon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.295 — German Marquez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.283 — Robinson Cano batting against Frankie Montas.
0.282 — Christian Yelich batting against Cody Reed.
0.279 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.278 — Freddie Freeman batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277 — Nick Markakis batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.277 — Matt Holliday batting against Eric Lauer.
0.276 — Mitch Haniger batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Denard Span batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Ian Desmond batting against Eric Lauer.
0.274 — Miguel Andujar batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.273 — Ryon Healy batting against Frankie Montas.

It’s a good day to pick someone from the Rockies or the Mariners. Lauer allowed 111 hits in 86 2/3 innings, Montas 65 hits in 57 2/3 innings and hasn’t pitched in the majors in a month.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.751 — Jean Segura batting against Frankie Montas.
0.299, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.328, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eric Lauer.
0.330, 0.733 — Nolan Arenado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.324, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eric Lauer.
0.298, 0.726 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.323, 0.725 — Gerardo Parra batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.326, 0.723 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.262, 0.722 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.268, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.298, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.274, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.282, 0.709 — Christian Yelich batting against Cody Reed.
0.317, 0.707 — Trevor Story batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310, 0.706 — David Dahl batting against Eric Lauer.
0.279, 0.702 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.272, 0.700 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Cody Reed.
0.278, 0.698 — Freddie Freeman batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277, 0.697 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.264, 0.696 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.260, 0.694 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.258, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.266, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.277, 0.692 — Nick Markakis batting against Michael Montgomery.

Of all the Mariners and Rockies, the NN likes Segura the best, and he is the consensus first choice. Nolan Arenado is the consensus second choice.

The top pick each day streak ended at 17 as Albert Almora goes hitless Wednesday and Daniel Murphy did not start the game. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. Fortunately, I did not trust the odd day granted the Cubs due to the rain the night before, and went with Segura and J.D. Martinez. My streak is now at 12.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2ompsCj

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich rockets to the number two slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he goes six for six and hits for the cycle in the Brewers 13-12 extra-inning win over the Reds. The game featured nine home runs (including one by Billy Hamilton) and 16 extra-base hits. Yelich did it without a lot of batting practice due to the rain:

“Honestly? In the cage today, it was a zoo,” he said, referring to the afternoon rain that washed out batting practice and delayed the first pitch by 27 minutes. “We didn’t have any [batting practice] on the field today. You do your flip routine. It was just one of those days where it was ‘not it.’

“You leave there and go, ‘All right, we’re going to go out there and find a way to compete. Do anything you can to help the guys win.’ Baseball is a crazy game that way. Things that you don’t really expect to happen in this game happen. It was one of those nights.”

Yelich is on a nice power tear, with 12 of his last 20 hits going for extra bases.

Earlier in the day, Alex Bregman went 2 for 3 with two walks to remain in first place. Mike Trout drops to third as the Angels had the night off, J.D. Martinez stands fourth with Justin Turner right behind him.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2oofSPi

Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2PL35TE

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Big Inning Red Sox

The Red Sox scored 11 runs in the seventh inning and beat the Marlins 14-6 Wednesday night. It was the 24th time this season the Red Sox score five or more runs in an inning, the most in the majors. The Indians are second with 20 such inning. No other team scored more than four runs in an inning today. It’s another reason I think of the word “relentless” when describing the Boston offense.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2oj3vnM

Hitching Their Wagon to Hinch

The Houston Chronicle reports that A.J. Hinch will receive a contract extension Thursday:

The Astros are scheduled to announce a contract extension for manager A.J. Hinch on Thursday, a source confirmed to the Chronicle on Wednesday.

General manager Jeff Luhnow did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Hinch’s contract was set to expire after this season, but the deal did have a club option for 2019. Terms of Hinch’s new agreement were not yet known.

Hinch works well with the front office, and that synergy put together a young team that should be dominant for a number of years. Nice to see his efforts rewarded.

Houston beat Oakland 5-4 Wednesday afternoon.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2PllZzF

Games of the Day

The Athletics and Astros finish their series with Trevor Cahill facing Dallas Keuchel. Cahill keeps runners off base, with a .221 BA allowed and a .287 OBP allowed. I would expect a lower ERA for him, but the opposition is hitting .289 with runners in scoring position. Keuchel allowed a high number of balls in play against Oakland. Although he gave up 21 hits in 20 2/3 innings, his ERA against them stands at 5.23. Twelve of those 21 hits went for extra bases.

Trevor Williams leads the Pirates against the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas. Williams is hot, with a 0.97 ERA in six games since the All-Star break. He did take the loss in two of those games, thanks to the lack of support. Mikolas is undefeated in ten starts since the first of July.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2ojE3OX

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jason Vargas.
0.331 — Albert Almora batting against Jason Vargas.
0.329 — Javier Baez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.307 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.304 — Ben Zobrist batting against Jason Vargas.
0.301 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.296 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.296 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.296 — Jason Heyward batting against Jason Vargas.
0.296 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.290 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.287 — Tommy La Stella batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — David C Bote batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.283 — Willson Contreras batting against Jason Vargas.
0.282 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Richards.
0.280 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.276 — Kevin Pillar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.276 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Harvey.
0.276 — Victor Caratini batting against Jason Vargas.
0.275 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.275 — Miguel Andujar batting against Reynaldo Lopez.

Log5 is calling for a big day by the Cubs. There are two things to be concerned about, however. Vargas pitched better lately, and the Cubs and Mets are finishing a suspended game first. It’s going to be tough to know who is starting in game two early.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jason Vargas.
0.331, 0.739 — Albert Almora batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.296, 0.733 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.329, 0.732 — Javier Baez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.273, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.296, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.307, 0.722 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301, 0.719 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.271, 0.711 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.275, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.296, 0.710 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.282, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.275, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.301, 0.702 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.270, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Adam Plutko.
0.269, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.274, 0.696 — Nick Castellanos batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.265, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.271, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.259, 0.691 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.304, 0.691 — Ben Zobrist batting against Jason Vargas.

I would be very tempted to go with Segura and J.D. Martinez today, especially given Joe Maddon‘s unpredictability with lineups.

The top pick each day has now generated a 17 day streak. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. Unfortunately, being late in the season, I’ve been doubling down, so my current streak is ten.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2ohULhN

Best Batter Today

Alex Bregman posted another productive night to stay atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for four with a double, but despite his efforts the Athletics beat the Astros 4-3 to keep the AL East division race close. Mike Trout remains in second place after drawing a walk in four trips as the Angels fall to the Rockies 3-2. Justin Turner collect two hits, one a double, to stay in third place, The Dodgers beat the Rangers 8-4. J.D. Martinez walked and collected two singles late in a late inning Boston win over the Marlins. Christian Yelich rounds out the top five, hitting two home runs in a losing cause as Cincinnati beats Milwaukee 9-7.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Pga6L4

Hump Day Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2LBf3Mw

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Nola Impresses

The Phillies chase Max Scherzer after five innings, leading the Nationals 3-0 on two homers off Scherzer. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola is dominating the Nationals hitters for the second game in a row. He throws pitches with extremely late movement toward the plate, so much so that batters are leaning out of the way of pitches that end up strikes, especially left-handed batters. He’s walked two and struck out six in the game as he pitches the sixth inning.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2BVS5jr

Shildt to the Hilt

The St. Louis Cardinals signed interim manager Mike Shildt to a two-year contract:

“Why now?” said John Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, in reference to making Mike Shildt the official manager. “It made sense because everything is going well and more importantly, (there is) momentum behind our players and our staff. … Clearly, we had to do something different. These changes have been very positive. I’ve had a lot of feedback from our coaches and players and everyone has endorsed him.”

The 50-year-old Shildt is the 50th manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, a club that was 50-50 on July 24 and enters Tuesday 73-58.

It’s good to reward success. Two years is a good length, also, since the Cardinals surge could be as much about Mike Mathney leaving as Shlidt taking over. If the former is true, the Cardinals might want to make another move in a couple of years.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Lzgtqw

Building an Organization

The Marlins are investing a lot of time and effort in improving their minor league players:

The Marlins hired Emily Glass, a trained educator, and four other teachers to give language and life lessons to prospects as part of weekly 45-minute sessions. The goal is to make Marlins prospects self-sufficient and more mature, believing that increases their chance of success on the field.

Glass “has a passion for teaching,” Gary Denbo, the Marlins’ director of player development and scouting, told FS-Florida. “We hope to have the best education department in all of sports, not just baseball. That is our goal and we will reach that goal. Everyone has an individual program.”

The Marlins have installed computers and set up labs at their facilities in Jupiter and the Dominican Republic to help them with their course work.

Marlins co-owner Derek Jeter also told Denbo that he wants Spanish-speaking players in the Marlins’ minor-league system to learn English and English-speaking players to learn Spanish. That has been implemented.

There are other interesting things going on as well. The Indians and Red Sox implemented systems like this many years ago, and they appear to have very cohesive teams.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2PM4jOs

Off the Cuff

Sean Manaea may be out for the season with a shoulder injury:

A’s left-hander Sean Manaea has been shut down indefinitely with tendinitis in his left rotator cuff, and while the club is hopeful he will pitch again this year, there remains a chance that his season is over.

When I was young, torn rotator cuffs were rather prevalent among pitchers, and not many came back strong from the injury. Better training of the muscles that make up the cuff greatly reduced the catastrophic version of the injury.

Manaea was the Oakland workhorse, the only pitcher who started for them and broke the 100 inning barrier so far. The A’s really cobbled together a rotation this season, making their run at a wild card all the more impressive. Manaea is just 1 1/3 innings away from becoming an ERA qualifier.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2LzeanE

Games of the Day

Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola battle for the NL Cy Young Award as the Nationals face the Phillies. Tom Tango’s Cy Young Tracker has Scherzer ahead, with Nola third behind Jacob deGrom. Nola beating Scherzer twice down the stretch, however, should sit well with the voters.

The Mets send deGrom into battle with the Cubs and Cole Hamels, so all three top contenders are in action today. Hamels is 4-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five games with the Cubs. deGrom does a great job of keeping the ball in the park.

Finally, Clay Buchholz leads the Diamondbacks against the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Buchholz walked just 16 batters in 80 innings this season. Bumgarner has mixed results against the Diamondbacks in his career. He owns a 2.58 ERA, but a 10-11 record.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2BQlICE