Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Nolan Arenado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.329 — Jean Segura batting against Frankie Montas.
0.328 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eric Lauer.
0.326 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.324 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eric Lauer.
0.323 — Gerardo Parra batting against Eric Lauer.
0.317 — Trevor Story batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310 — David Dahl batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.298 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.298 — Dee Gordon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.295 — German Marquez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.283 — Robinson Cano batting against Frankie Montas.
0.282 — Christian Yelich batting against Cody Reed.
0.279 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.278 — Freddie Freeman batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277 — Nick Markakis batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.277 — Matt Holliday batting against Eric Lauer.
0.276 — Mitch Haniger batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Denard Span batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Ian Desmond batting against Eric Lauer.
0.274 — Miguel Andujar batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.273 — Ryon Healy batting against Frankie Montas.

It’s a good day to pick someone from the Rockies or the Mariners. Lauer allowed 111 hits in 86 2/3 innings, Montas 65 hits in 57 2/3 innings and hasn’t pitched in the majors in a month.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.751 — Jean Segura batting against Frankie Montas.
0.299, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.328, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eric Lauer.
0.330, 0.733 — Nolan Arenado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.324, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eric Lauer.
0.298, 0.726 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.323, 0.725 — Gerardo Parra batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.326, 0.723 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.262, 0.722 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.268, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.298, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.274, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.282, 0.709 — Christian Yelich batting against Cody Reed.
0.317, 0.707 — Trevor Story batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310, 0.706 — David Dahl batting against Eric Lauer.
0.279, 0.702 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.272, 0.700 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Cody Reed.
0.278, 0.698 — Freddie Freeman batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.277, 0.697 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.264, 0.696 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.260, 0.694 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.258, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.266, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.277, 0.692 — Nick Markakis batting against Michael Montgomery.

Of all the Mariners and Rockies, the NN likes Segura the best, and he is the consensus first choice. Nolan Arenado is the consensus second choice.

The top pick each day streak ended at 17 as Albert Almora goes hitless Wednesday and Daniel Murphy did not start the game. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. Fortunately, I did not trust the odd day granted the Cubs due to the rain the night before, and went with Segura and J.D. Martinez. My streak is now at 12.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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