Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.366 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey.
0.350 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey.
0.345 — Javier Baez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.320 — Ben Zobrist batting against Homer Bailey.
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Mike Leake.
0.312 — Whit Merrifield batting against Shane Bieber.
0.306 — Jason Heyward batting against Homer Bailey.
0.305 — Tommy La Stella batting against Homer Bailey.
0.301 — Willson Contreras batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Pena.
0.297 — Miguel Andujar batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.296 — David C Bote batting against Homer Bailey.
0.296 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293 — Victor Caratini batting against Homer Bailey.
0.292 — Kevan Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Archer.
0.291 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.289 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Leake.
0.287 — Jose Martinez batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.287 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Mike Leake.
0.287 — A.J. Pollock batting against Mike Leake.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Zack Greinke.
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Archer.

Bailey looked like he was turning this around in July, but in August he allowed 29 hits in 14 2/3 innings so far. Murphy is 6 for 10 against Bailey in their careers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.366, 0.776 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey.
0.350, 0.754 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey.
0.345, 0.745 — Javier Baez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Pena.
0.314, 0.731 — David Peralta batting against Mike Leake.
0.287, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Zack Greinke.
0.312, 0.725 — Whit Merrifield batting against Shane Bieber.
0.287, 0.722 — Jose Martinez batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.297, 0.722 — Miguel Andujar batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.291, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.283, 0.710 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Estrada.
0.296, 0.709 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.283, 0.709 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.291, 0.707 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Archer.
0.286, 0.705 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Archer.
0.320, 0.705 — Ben Zobrist batting against Homer Bailey.
0.277, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.292, 0.701 — Kevan Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.283, 0.700 — Matt M Duffy batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.289, 0.699 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Leake.
0.268, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Jorge Lopez.
0.285, 0.698 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278, 0.697 — Jose Peraza batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.264, 0.696 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.282, 0.696 — Justin Turner batting against Robert Erlin.
0.266, 0.696 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Pena.
0.269, 0.696 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Anderson.

It’s a Daniel Murphy day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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