Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.295 — Albert Almora batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.288 — J.D. Martinez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.287 — Javier Baez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285 — Nick Markakis batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Adam Plutko.
0.275 — Charlie Culberson batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.274 — Ozzie Albies batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.274 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.273 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.270 — Scooter Gennett batting against Cole Hamels.
0.269 — Joey Wendle batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.269 — Mallex Smith batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.268 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.268 — Ronald Acuna batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.267 — Gerardo Parra batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.266 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.263 — Michael Brantley batting against David Price.
0.263 — Ben Zobrist batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.260 — Trevor Story batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.260 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.258 — Johan Camargo batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.258 — Jose Peraza batting against Cole Hamels.
0.258 — Ender Inciarte batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.258 — Nick Castellanos batting against James Shields.

The Cubs are playing at home today, so we’ll see how Murphy and Baez share time. Joe Maddon is very good at getting all the Cubs position players into games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.288, 0.726 — J.D. Martinez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.295, 0.721 — Albert Almora batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.291, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.281, 0.711 — Mookie Betts batting against Adam Plutko.
0.287, 0.707 — Javier Baez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.274, 0.705 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.270, 0.703 — Scooter Gennett batting against Cole Hamels.
0.268, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.266, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.285, 0.699 — Nick Markakis batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.263, 0.697 — Michael Brantley batting against David Price.
0.267, 0.696 — Gerardo Parra batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.273, 0.692 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.274, 0.688 — Ozzie Albies batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.258, 0.687 — Nick Castellanos batting against James Shields.
0.257, 0.686 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.269, 0.686 — Joey Wendle batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.258, 0.685 — Jose Peraza batting against Cole Hamels.
0.251, 0.683 — Jose Ramirez batting against David Price.
0.269, 0.683 — Mallex Smith batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.250, 0.683 — Starlin Castro batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.275, 0.682 — Charlie Culberson batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.239, 0.681 — Eddie Rosario batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.260, 0.681 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Joey Lucchesi.

Murphy is the unanimous first choice, with Almora the consensus second choice. For some reason, Almora never seems to start when he is rated highly by these programs, so keep your eye on the starting lineups. The Cubs play one of the two 8 PM EDT starts today, the latest games on the schedule. There’s nothing wrong with a Martinez-Freeman double down here.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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