Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jason Vargas.
0.317 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.316 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.316 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jacob Turner.
0.312 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.312 — Maikel Franco batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jason Vargas.
0.310 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jason Vargas.
0.309 — David Peralta batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305 — Nick Williams batting against Jason Vargas.
0.301 — Miguel Andujar batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.300 — Jose Peraza batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.298 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.296 — Freddie Freeman batting against German Marquez.
0.293 — Matt M Duffy batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.292 — Nick Markakis batting against German Marquez.
0.292 — Austin Jackson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.292 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290 — Roman T Quinn batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290 — Jon Jay batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.290 — A.J. Pollock batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.289 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.289 — Joe Mauer batting against Jacob Turner.
0.288 — Joey Wendle batting against Hector Velazquez.

Ramos is having a great year at the plate, Vargas a terrible year on the mound. Log5 loves this matchup.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.344, 0.745 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.317, 0.733 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.316, 0.730 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jacob Turner.
0.316, 0.726 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298, 0.723 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.301, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.309, 0.719 — David Peralta batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.274, 0.719 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.296, 0.718 — Freddie Freeman batting against German Marquez.
0.300, 0.711 — Jose Peraza batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.292, 0.709 — Nick Markakis batting against German Marquez.
0.292, 0.708 — Austin Jackson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289, 0.707 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.293, 0.706 — Matt M Duffy batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.277, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jose Quintana.
0.250, 0.706 — J.D. Martinez batting against Diego Castillo.
0.312, 0.706 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jason Vargas.
0.310, 0.702 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jason Vargas.
0.263, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.283, 0.701 — Ozzie Albies batting against German Marquez.
0.282, 0.700 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288, 0.699 — Joey Wendle batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.257, 0.699 — Jose Martinez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.269, 0.698 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jaime Barria.

The NN likes Ramos only slightly better than Murphy. Murphy may not play today. He cost the Nationals the game Saturday night with a poor defensive showing. He looked like he needs a day off. Scooter Gennett is the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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