Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.319 — David Peralta batting against Chris Stratton.
0.311 — Albert Almora batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.307 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.306 — Javier Baez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.302 — Nolan Arenado batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.295 — Gerardo Parra batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.295 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.294 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.292 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Chris Stratton.
0.290 — A.J. Pollock batting against Chris Stratton.
0.287 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.286 — Adam C Eaton batting against Zach Eflin.
0.286 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Chris Stratton.
0.286 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.285 — Trevor Story batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.284 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.283 — Anthony Rendon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282 — Ben Zobrist batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.281 — David Dahl batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.279 — Alex Bregman batting against Brett Anderson.
0.278 — Tyler White batting against Brett Anderson.

Altuve is 2 for 9 career against Anderson with a walk and three strikeouts. Murphy is 4 for 18 against Syndergaard with two doubles, two walks, and two strikeouts.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.340, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.327, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.319, 0.733 — David Peralta batting against Chris Stratton.
0.311, 0.730 — Albert Almora batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.307, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.306, 0.720 — Javier Baez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.302, 0.718 — Nolan Arenado batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.286, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.295, 0.714 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.296, 0.714 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.295, 0.709 — Gerardo Parra batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.287, 0.704 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.286, 0.703 — Adam C Eaton batting against Zach Eflin.
0.294, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Stratton.
0.284, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.292, 0.700 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.283, 0.698 — Anthony Rendon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292, 0.695 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Chris Stratton.
0.275, 0.692 — Trea Turner batting against Zach Eflin.
0.290, 0.691 — A.J. Pollock batting against Chris Stratton.
0.231, 0.689 — Miguel Andujar batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.281, 0.688 — David Dahl batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.285, 0.686 — Trevor Story batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.286, 0.684 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Chris Stratton.
0.279, 0.683 — Alex Bregman batting against Brett Anderson.

Both systems are in agreement on Altuve and Murphy.

The top pick each day has now generated a 15 day streak. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. We’ll see tonight if Jose Altuve can tie that. Unfortunately, being late in the season, I’ve been doubling down, so my current streak is six.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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