Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.295 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.286 — Michael Brantley batting against David Hess.
0.285 — Jean Segura batting against Walker Buehler.
0.285 — Matt M Duffy batting against Brian Johnson.
0.282 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282 — Odubel Herrera batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.282 — Buster Posey batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281 — Elvis Andrus batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.280 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.279 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.278 — Maikel Franco batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.278 — Joey Wendle batting against Brian Johnson.
0.276 — Jose Ramirez batting against David Hess.
0.276 — Albert Almora batting against Trevor Williams.
0.276 — Scooter Gennett batting against Casey Kelly.
0.276 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.275 — Nick Williams batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.273 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.272 — Mallex Smith batting against Brian Johnson.
0.271 — Alen Hanson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.271 — Adrian Beltre batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.271 — Javier Baez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.270 — Manny Machado batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.269 — Adam Jones batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.269 — Nick Markakis batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.269 — Corey Dickerson batting against Cole Hamels.

I’m a bit surprised anyone would come up as number one on the list if they are facing Noah Syndergaard. In this case, however, Ramos doesn’t walk very much, and Syndergaard is very frugal with his free passes. Syndergaard own a low opposition OBP, but he does give up hits to achieve the low walk rate.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.314, 0.732 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.280, 0.728 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.285, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Walker Buehler.
0.295, 0.713 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.286, 0.709 — Michael Brantley batting against David Hess.
0.276, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Trevor Williams.
0.276, 0.706 — Scooter Gennett batting against Casey Kelly.
0.273, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.285, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against Brian Johnson.
0.281, 0.705 — Elvis Andrus batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.282, 0.702 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.701 — Buster Posey batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.276, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.276, 0.700 — Jose Ramirez batting against David Hess.
0.236, 0.700 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.269, 0.698 — Corey Dickerson batting against Cole Hamels.
0.271, 0.698 — Javier Baez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.257, 0.697 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd.
0.268, 0.696 — David Peralta batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.269, 0.695 — Nick Markakis batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.262, 0.695 — Dee Gordon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.278, 0.695 — Joey Wendle batting against Brian Johnson.
0.269, 0.694 — Adam Jones batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.234, 0.692 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.260, 0.691 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.271, 0.691 — Adrian Beltre batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.282, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Noah Syndergaard.

The parameters of the NN for Ramos versus Syndergaard show the Mets starter with a .258 hit average for 2018, .249 over the last three seasons. That is well above the leave average .225. Ramos’s hit averages are .287 for 2018, .275 for the three-year period. So you have a match-up where both batter and pitcher are well above the league norms, so that should produce a higher probability of a hit. Ramos and Murphy are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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