Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Buster Posey batting against Martin Perez.
0.329 — Alen Hanson batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Evan Longoria batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Brandon Crawford batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Austin Slater batting against Martin Perez.
0.309 — Joe Panik batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Steven Duggar batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.305 — Brandon Belt batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.304 — Chase D’Arnaud batting against Martin Perez.
0.304 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — Manny Machado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.303 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302 — Nick Hundley batting against Martin Perez.
0.302 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.299 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Hunter Pence batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Matt Kemp batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.296 — Jose Martinez batting against German Marquez.
0.295 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

Posey will have hip surgery Monday, so I don’t know if he is going to play until then. He is not on the disabled list. I’d think he would want to bat against Perez.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.305, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.340, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Martin Perez.
0.296, 0.727 — Jose Martinez batting against German Marquez.
0.272, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Robbie Ray.
0.295, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.279, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.290, 0.717 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.288, 0.713 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.299, 0.713 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284, 0.711 — David Peralta batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.291, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292, 0.711 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.284, 0.710 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287, 0.709 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.329, 0.708 — Alen Hanson batting against Martin Perez.
0.281, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fiers.
0.297, 0.708 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.275, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.303, 0.707 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302, 0.706 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.278, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.285, 0.705 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.303, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.287, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.277, 0.701 — Marcell Ozuna batting against German Marquez.
0.268, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Heath Fillmyer.

Note the Yankees and Orioles are playing a double header today, so be careful which game you pick! Or, you could just double down on Miguel Andujar. Posey is the consensus first choice, but if you elminate him from the competition, it looks like Altuve and Murphy would be the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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