Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Urena.
0.301 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.300 — Jean Segura batting against Jacob Nix.
0.295 — Justin Turner batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.294 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.293 — Mookie Betts batting against Jose Urena.
0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.291 — Harrison Bader batting against Ivan Nova.
0.290 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.288 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.283 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.281 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Ivan Nova.
0.279 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.278 — Miguel Andujar batting against James Shields.
0.277 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Starlin Castro batting against Brian Johnson.
0.275 — Corey Seager batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.273 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jose Urena.
0.272 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.271 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brian Johnson.
0.270 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.270 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.

It looks like a good night for the Cardinals against Nova. Jose Martinez is 2 for 10 against Nova, but Molina is 6 for 10. Neither has struck out against Nova, and balls in play can turn into hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.743 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.306, 0.737 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Urena.
0.300, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Jacob Nix.
0.270, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.293, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Jose Urena.
0.278, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting against James Shields.
0.294, 0.711 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.290, 0.710 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.295, 0.708 — Justin Turner batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.279, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.301, 0.707 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
0.268, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.292, 0.701 — Manny Machado batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.276, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Brian Johnson.
0.265, 0.698 — Ronald Torreyes batting against James Shields.
0.270, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.273, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jose Urena.
0.263, 0.697 — David Peralta batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.272, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.253, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.255, 0.694 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd.
0.258, 0.694 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.285, 0.694 — Matt Kemp batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.260, 0.694 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Noe Ramirez.

The Angels are using an opener strategy today, as Noe Ramirez gets the start. Jose Martinez is the consensus choice. It’s a two Martinez day as J.D. Martinez is the consensus second choice, although with Altuve tied for first, that is a good double down as well.

(Note that Jose Martinez is actually first. To four decimal places, Martinez is .7432, Altuve is .7427.)

The top pick each day has now generated a 16 day streak. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. We’ll see tonight if Jose Martinez can top that. Unfortunately, being late in the season, I’ve been doubling down, so my current streak is eight.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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