Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.355 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.332 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tom Milone.
0.328 — Starlin Castro batting against Tom Milone.
0.320 — Michael Brantley batting against Alex Cobb.
0.316 — Albert Pujols batting against Martin Perez.
0.316 — Francisco Arcia batting against Martin Perez.
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.312 — David Fletcher batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Rene Rivera batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Justin Upton batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Jose Ramirez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.309 — Brian Anderson batting against Tom Milone.
0.305 — Taylor Ward batting against Martin Perez.
0.304 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.303 — Eric Young Jr. batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — Derek Dietrich batting against Tom Milone.
0.302 — Miguel Rojas batting against Tom Milone.
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Francisco Lindor batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Yandy Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Rafael Ortega batting against Tom Milone.
0.293 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.293 — Melky Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.

Martin Perez distorts this list. His hit average allowed is so high, .327 this season, that pitchers who have a plate appearance or two get pulled in as they appear as average hitters due to the regression. It should be a good day for the Angels.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.355, 0.745 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.332, 0.738 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tom Milone.
0.328, 0.734 — Starlin Castro batting against Tom Milone.
0.320, 0.730 — Michael Brantley batting against Alex Cobb.
0.310, 0.721 — Jose Ramirez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.304, 0.719 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.292, 0.719 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.274, 0.718 — Jean Segura batting against Rich Hill.
0.293, 0.716 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279, 0.716 — Jose Martinez batting against Wade Miley.
0.302, 0.714 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.258, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.286, 0.710 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.283, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.309, 0.707 — Brian Anderson batting against Tom Milone.
0.285, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.279, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.255, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.301, 0.702 — Francisco Lindor batting against Alex Cobb.
0.260, 0.702 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.293, 0.700 — Melky Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.279, 0.700 — Adam Jones batting against Adam Plutko.
0.280, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.264, 0.699 — Scooter Gennett batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.302, 0.699 — Miguel Rojas batting against Tom Milone.

The NN weights the batter’s record, especially his three-year hit average, more heavily than the pitcher’s ability, so we don’t get the bad-pitcher distortion here. That’s why Murphy makes it to the top of this list, but Simmons and Realmuto are the consensus first and second choices.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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