Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.326 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.326 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.313 — Harrison Bader batting against Homer Bailey.
0.312 — Yairo Munoz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.311 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.308 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.306 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305 — Javier Baez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Homer Bailey.
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.303 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.302 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.302 — Matthew Adams batting against Homer Bailey.
0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Kopech.
0.297 — Patrick Wisdom batting against Homer Bailey.
0.296 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.293 — Whit Merrifield batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292 — Austin Jackson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.290 — David Dahl batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.289 — Matt Carpenter batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Drew Hutchison.

Bailey actually pitched well against St. Louis this year, at least in the context of Bailey’s poor season. He is 0-1 in three starts with a 3.72 ERA against the Cardinals, and allowed 16 hits in 19 1/3 innings.

Jose Martinez is 5 for 13 against Bailey, while Adams, Carpenter, and Molina are even better.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.358, 0.762 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.310, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.326, 0.743 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.298, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Kopech.
0.311, 0.728 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.306, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.326, 0.723 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.305, 0.720 — Javier Baez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.305, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.308, 0.716 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.293, 0.716 — Whit Merrifield batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.303, 0.715 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.279, 0.713 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Quintana.
0.288, 0.713 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Kopech.
0.289, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.289, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.302, 0.709 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.305, 0.707 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.281, 0.706 — Christian Yelich batting against Tanner Roark.
0.292, 0.703 — Austin Jackson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.275, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tanner Roark.
0.276, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Jameson Taillon.

Jose Martinez is the unanimous first pick. He is hit hot right now, with 33 hits and six walks in his last 23 games, striking out just 13 times. Murphy and Andujar are tied for consensus second pick.

Also note that Jean Segura was a late scratch last night due to a bruise.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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