Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
0.323 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.300 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.298 — Nick Markakis batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.294 — Jason Heyward batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — David C Bote batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — Anthony Rendon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.288 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.287 — Willson Contreras batting against Ivan Nova.
0.286 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — Tommy La Stella batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284 — Adam C Eaton batting against Luke Weaver.
0.284 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283 — Trea Turner batting against Luke Weaver.
0.280 — Addison Russell batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.276 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.275 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.275 — Victor Caratini batting against Ivan Nova.
0.273 — Juan Soto batting against Luke Weaver.

Log5 predicts a good day for the Cubs but none of the Cubs at the top of the list have a history of hitting Nova well.

Note that the Phillies and Mets play a double header today, so be careful which game you pick.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
0.329, 0.741 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.323, 0.730 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.298, 0.712 — Nick Markakis batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284, 0.712 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.287, 0.707 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.281, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.286, 0.701 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.264, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.292, 0.699 — Anthony Rendon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.275, 0.699 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.288, 0.696 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.267, 0.696 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.259, 0.696 — Eddie Rosario batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.272, 0.693 — Yadier Molina batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Luke Weaver.
0.254, 0.692 — Elvis Andrus batting against Taylor Cole.
0.271, 0.692 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.300, 0.690 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.270, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ervin Santana.
0.284, 0.690 — Adam C Eaton batting against Luke Weaver.
0.267, 0.688 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tanner Roark.
0.272, 0.686 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.294, 0.686 — Jason Heyward batting against Ivan Nova.
0.256, 0.686 — Matt M Duffy batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

Daniel Murphy takes first place for the first time this year as he regained his swing after a long recovery from off-season surgery. Wilson Ramos came off the disabled list yesterday and hit two doubles and a triple. Murphy and Almora are tied for the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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