Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Christian Yelich batting against Homer Bailey.
0.334 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Homer Bailey.
0.317 — Hernan Perez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.303 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Homer Bailey.
0.302 — Ryan Braun batting against Homer Bailey.
0.301 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Homer Bailey.
0.300 — Michael Moustakas batting against Homer Bailey.
0.292 — Manuel Pina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.292 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Archer.
0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.288 — Nick Markakis batting against Chris Archer.
0.287 — Erik Kratz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.285 — Adam Frazier batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.284 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.284 — David Freese batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283 — Elvis Andrus batting against Michael Fiers.
0.282 — Elias Diaz batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.282 — Travis Shaw batting against Homer Bailey.
0.280 — Whit Merrifield batting against Hunter Wood.
0.280 — Matt Chapman batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.280 — Austin Jackson batting against Derek Holland.
0.277 — Ozzie Albies batting against Chris Archer.
0.276 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.276 — Marcus Semien batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.276 — Orlando Arcia batting against Homer Bailey.

Yelich and Cain proved to be great acquisitions for the Brewers, and with a light schedule today they pop to the top of the Log5 list against Homer Bailey. The Brewers should have a good evening at the plate.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.740 — Christian Yelich batting against Homer Bailey.
0.334, 0.735 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.292, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Archer.
0.251, 0.712 — Jean Segura batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.317, 0.712 — Hernan Perez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.283, 0.706 — Elvis Andrus batting against Michael Fiers.
0.268, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chase Anderson.
0.271, 0.705 — Jose Martinez batting against Alex Wood.
0.257, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Corey Kluber.
0.290, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.288, 0.703 — Nick Markakis batting against Chris Archer.
0.272, 0.703 — Michael Brantley batting against Rick Porcello.
0.276, 0.701 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.280, 0.701 — Whit Merrifield batting against Hunter Wood.
0.280, 0.700 — Austin Jackson batting against Derek Holland.
0.301, 0.697 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Homer Bailey.
0.302, 0.695 — Ryan Braun batting against Homer Bailey.
0.271, 0.694 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.285, 0.694 — Adam Frazier batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.277, 0.694 — Ozzie Albies batting against Chris Archer.
0.262, 0.693 — Jose Ramirez batting against Rick Porcello.
0.253, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Corey Kluber.
0.303, 0.692 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Homer Bailey.
0.255, 0.691 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.

It’s unanimous, the NN agrees that Yelich and Cain are the top two picks. Both are hitting over .300 against Bailey in their careers, Yelich 3 for 9, Cain 3 for 8.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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