Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.319 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.316 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.315 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.314 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.312 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jason Vargas.
0.310 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.309 — Trea Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.308 — Wilson Ramos batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.298 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Zachary Godley.
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.293 — Juan Soto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.289 — Manny Machado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.288 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Matt M Duffy batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.287 — Christian Yelich batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.286 — Mallex Smith batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.286 — Jose Martinez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.285 — David Peralta batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284 — Mark Reynolds batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Ben Zobrist batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Matt Grace batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Matt Kemp batting against Clayton Richard.

Vargas pitched better his last two starts, so he may not be as hittable as he looks here.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.328, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.296, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.315, 0.735 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Zachary Godley.
0.319, 0.731 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.314, 0.731 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.308, 0.726 — Wilson Ramos batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.310, 0.724 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286, 0.719 — Jose Martinez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.285, 0.712 — David Peralta batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.316, 0.709 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287, 0.709 — Christian Yelich batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.276, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.
0.309, 0.706 — Trea Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312, 0.705 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jason Vargas.
0.280, 0.705 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.271, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Alec Mills.
0.289, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.273, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Brad Keller.
0.248, 0.702 — J.D. Martinez batting against Diego Castillo.
0.288, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.285, 0.701 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.268, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.262, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.264, 0.697 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sean Manaea.
0.267, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting against Daniel Straily.

It’s never a bad day when you can double down with Murphy and Altuve.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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