Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jason Vargas.
0.331 — Albert Almora batting against Jason Vargas.
0.329 — Javier Baez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.307 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.304 — Ben Zobrist batting against Jason Vargas.
0.301 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.296 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.296 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.296 — Jason Heyward batting against Jason Vargas.
0.296 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.290 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.287 — Tommy La Stella batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — David C Bote batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.283 — Willson Contreras batting against Jason Vargas.
0.282 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Richards.
0.280 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.276 — Kevin Pillar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.276 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Harvey.
0.276 — Victor Caratini batting against Jason Vargas.
0.275 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.275 — Miguel Andujar batting against Reynaldo Lopez.

Log5 is calling for a big day by the Cubs. There are two things to be concerned about, however. Vargas pitched better lately, and the Cubs and Mets are finishing a suspended game first. It’s going to be tough to know who is starting in game two early.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jason Vargas.
0.331, 0.739 — Albert Almora batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.296, 0.733 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.329, 0.732 — Javier Baez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.273, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.296, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.307, 0.722 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301, 0.719 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.271, 0.711 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.275, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.296, 0.710 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.282, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.275, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.301, 0.702 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.270, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Adam Plutko.
0.269, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.274, 0.696 — Nick Castellanos batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.265, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.271, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kohl Stewart.
0.259, 0.691 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.304, 0.691 — Ben Zobrist batting against Jason Vargas.

I would be very tempted to go with Segura and J.D. Martinez today, especially given Joe Maddon‘s unpredictability with lineups.

The top pick each day has now generated a 17 day streak. During development, the top streak the test data produced was 16. Unfortunately, being late in the season, I’ve been doubling down, so my current streak is ten.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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