Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — J.D. Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.328 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ivan Nova.
0.327 — Mookie Betts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.323 — Nick Markakis batting against Ivan Nova.
0.317 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.317 — Albert Almora batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.313 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310 — Javier Baez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.310 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.308 — Charlie Culberson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.305 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304 — Ronald Acuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.301 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.298 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.296 — Johan Camargo batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Sal Romano.
0.294 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.294 — Nomar Mazara batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Ender Inciarte batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291 — Steve Pearce batting against Shane Bieber.
0.291 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.

If you like doubling down with two hitters from the same team, taking Betts and Martinez from Boston or Freeman and Markakis from Atlanta might work for you. Freeman is just 1 for 6 against Nova, but Markakis has a long history against the Pirates starter and is 14 for 42, .333.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.748 — J.D. Martinez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.328, 0.738 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ivan Nova.
0.327, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Shane Bieber.
0.317, 0.736 — Albert Almora batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.285, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.313, 0.729 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.317, 0.728 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.323, 0.728 — Nick Markakis batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.723 — Javier Baez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.305, 0.721 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.286, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tanner Roark.
0.308, 0.716 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.310, 0.715 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ivan Nova.
0.301, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.289, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Robert Erlin.
0.305, 0.713 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.298, 0.711 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295, 0.711 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Sal Romano.
0.294, 0.710 — Adam Jones batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.279, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.281, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robert Erlin.
0.308, 0.707 — Charlie Culberson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.278, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.279, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robert Erlin.

It looks like a day to pick the sluggers, as Martinez and Freeman are the unanimous 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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