Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301 — David Peralta batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.300 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.299 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.293 — Buster Posey batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Brian Johnson.
0.286 — Miguel Andujar batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284 — Alen Hanson batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.284 — Austin Jackson batting against Casey Kelly.
0.282 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.277 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.277 — A.J. Pollock batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.277 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Trevor Richards.
0.277 — Jon Jay batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.276 — Mookie Betts batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.275 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.274 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jakob Junis.
0.274 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.273 — Alex Bregman batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.272 — Wilmer Flores batting against Casey Kelly.
0.272 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272 — Joey Wendle batting against Jakob Junis.
0.272 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brian Johnson.
0.271 — Freddie Freeman batting against Trevor Williams.
0.271 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.

Jose Altuve is back, and went 0 for 3 with a walk in his return from the disabled list Tuesday night. He is usually a very good pick. Note that my program thinks that Daniel Murphy plays for the Nationals until he actually plays a game for the Cubs.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.299, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282, 0.721 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.301, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.300, 0.719 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Brian Johnson.
0.286, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting against Trevor Richards.
0.276, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.277, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.247, 0.707 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.274, 0.706 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.277, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Trevor Richards.
0.293, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.272, 0.704 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.265, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.265, 0.704 — Albert Almora batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.271, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.284, 0.700 — Austin Jackson batting against Casey Kelly.
0.272, 0.700 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brian Johnson.
0.267, 0.694 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.266, 0.693 — Christian Yelich batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.270, 0.692 — Melky Cabrera batting against Brian Johnson.
0.274, 0.692 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jakob Junis.

If Murphy plays for the Cubs tonight against Francisco Liriano, his probability of getting a hit in the game would be .724. David Peralta should be the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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