Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
Warning: The Yankees have not announced their rotation for the weekend series at the Red Sox. One source has Masahiro Tanaka starting, one has Michael Pineda starting, one has TBD. I’m going with Tanaka for now, but will update if that changes.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.340 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard
0.321 — Denard Span batting against Clayton Richard
0.320 — Eric Hosmer batting against Martin Perez
0.311 — Nick Hundley batting against Clayton Richard
0.306 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Timothy Adleman
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields
0.304 — Salvador Perez batting against Martin Perez
0.302 — Whit Merrifield batting against Martin Perez
0.302 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Clayton Richard
The day after the All-Star break usually features great pitching, so I’m not surprised Giants dominate the list against Clayton Richard. The league is hitting .307/.359/.478 against him.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.306, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Timothy Adleman.
0.304, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields.
0.340, 0.747 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.282, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Berrios.
0.320, 0.732 — Eric Hosmer batting against Martin Perez.
0.280, 0.724 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.306, 0.722 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.290, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.321, 0.721 — Denard Span batting against Clayton Richard.
0.273, 0.720 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob deGrom.
There is a fairly large disconnect between the two systems today. The NN favors the better hitters over good hitters facing a poor pitcher. Daniel Murphy wins the top spot here, but Posey is the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vk9YQK
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