Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.330 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland
0.328 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin
0.327 — Ender Inciarte batting against Patrick Corbin
0.315 — Brandon Phillips batting against Patrick Corbin
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Patrick Corbin
0.309 — Johan Camargo batting against Patrick Corbin
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo
0.305 — Matthew Adams batting against Patrick Corbin
0.303 — Gerardo Parra batting against Seth Lugo
0.301 — Eddie Rosario batting against Joe Musgrove
0.301 — Tyler Flowers batting against Patrick Corbin
Log5 really likes batters against Patrick Corbin. He allows a fairly high BA with very few walks, so he is an excellent pitcher for extending a hit streak. Johan Camargo is starting to appear on these lists. His first 100 plate appearance in the majors were a success, posting a .327/.354/.495 slash line. Again, lots of hits, and a high OBP with few walks makes him the type of hitter who should post a long hit streak. With 14 of his 35 hits going for extra bases, he has more triples (2) than home runs (1).
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.330, 0.765 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.305, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.327, 0.744 — Ender Inciarte batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.328, 0.739 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.263, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against Ervin Santana.
0.300, 0.732 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Seth Lugo.
0.315, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.296, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Seth Lugo.
0.303, 0.729 — Gerardo Parra batting against Seth Lugo.
0.297, 0.728 — David Peralta batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
Segura is the unanimous pick on Saturday. The NN is less impressed with the Braves against Corbin. Camargo’s three-year weight hit average is heavily regressed to the league average at this point. The NN does a better job of recognizing that Camargo has not proven he’s much above average yet, and takes him off the top ten list.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2vo3UXw
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