Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.357 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey
0.352 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson
0.332 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland
0.321 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Kyle Gibson
0.319 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.314 — Josh Reddick batting against Kyle Gibson
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Homer Bailey
0.314 — Carlos Correa batting against Kyle Gibson
0.309 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.304 — George Springer batting against Kyle Gibson
It’s middle infielders day as Murphy, Altuve, and Segura top the list, with Castro fifth. Second base really has become a high hit position. Log5 especially likes Astros hitters against Kyle Gibson. The league is hitting .317/.389/.545 against Gibson this season, and yet the Twins still trot him out for starts.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.357, 0.784 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey.
0.352, 0.775 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.332, 0.767 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.319, 0.735 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.294, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.
0.292, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.321, 0.732 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.294, 0.726 — Gerardo Parra batting against Steven Matz.
0.314, 0.723 — Josh Reddick batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.722 — David Peralta batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
There is perfect agreement on the top three today, with Castro moving up to fourth on the NN list. middle infielders DJ LeMahieu and Xander Bogaerts join the list.
Be careful picking Red Sox and Yankees hitters today, as the teams are playing a double header. Often starters rest in one game, and also notice that Tanaka is pitching the nightcap, while Porcello is scheduled for the matinee.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tYeQeW
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