Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.341 — Buster Posey batting against Josh Tomlin
0.341 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.338 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo
0.337 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo
0.335 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.334 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Moore
0.327 — Elvis Andrus batting against Chris Tillman
0.322 — Denard Span batting against Josh Tomlin
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman
0.319 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo
At this point in the season, Tomlin is going tend to bring batters to the top of the list. He limits walks but doesn’t limit hits, so the OBP against him (.337) is mostly hits. That helps advance hit streaks, and the good hitters on the Giants get to take advantage of that today.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.322, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman.
0.337, 0.768 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.335, 0.762 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.338, 0.759 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.334, 0.750 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Moore.
0.341, 0.748 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.341, 0.747 — Buster Posey batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.319, 0.741 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.281, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Lance McCullers.
0.264, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Miranda.
The NN prefers batters against Luis Perdomo, as it puts more weight on the three-year weighted hit average than the current year hit average. For this season, Tomlin comes in with the higher HA, .305 to .266. For the three-year period, Perdomo wins, .280 to .272. In addition, Perdomo is pitching in Colorado, where the hit average is .271, versus .236 in San Francisco. Daniel Murphy does get the top spot, but DJ LeMahieu beats out Gerardo Parra for the consensus pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
The Nats are playing at 12:30 PM EDT, so if you are going with Murphy, get your pick in early.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2v9gSt0
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