Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman
0.312 — Justin Turner batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.310 — Jean Segura batting against Jesse Chavez
0.309 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez
0.306 — Buster Posey batting against Trevor Williams
0.298 — Ben Gamel batting against Jesse Chavez
0.298 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Kevin Gausman
0.295 — Timothy Beckham batting against Kevin Gausman
0.291 — Mallex Smith batting against Kevin Gausman
0.291 — Trey Mancini batting against Alexander Cobb
The Log5 Method likes the Rays against Gausman. Hechavarria is batting .310 with a .322 OBP, so his OBP is all hits. He hasn’t played much this season, so his high hit average is still getting regressed to the mean. The league hits .327 against Gausman, so there are plenty of opportunities to do damage.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.310, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.335, 0.744 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.312, 0.741 — Justin Turner batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.309, 0.737 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.306, 0.733 — Buster Posey batting against Trevor Williams.
0.261, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.284, 0.727 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.268, 0.724 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
0.284, 0.723 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.283, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Joseph Biagini.
The NN puts Segura at the top, but you need to go out to four decimal places to see the difference. Segura has better one and three year hit averages than Dickerson, and that’s enough to make up for Chavez being a better pitcher than Guasman. Dickerson is the consensus pick, however.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tzXJSD
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