Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman
0.320 — Corey Dickerson batting against Rick Porcello
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran
0.303 — T.J. Rivera batting against Adam Wainwright
0.303 — Wilmer Flores batting against Adam Wainwright
0.302 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Smith
0.299 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb
0.299 — Dee Gordon batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.298 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.297 — Mallex Smith batting against Rick Porcello

Altuve and Dickerson tie for the top spot. Altuve is red hot, with multiple hits in seven of his last ten games, including four games in a row with three hits. Dickerson is 8 for 25 against Porcello, a .320 BA. Note that Xander Bogaerts still has a tender hand after a HBP the other night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.320, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.307, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.302, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Smith.
0.279, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Quintana.
0.299, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Quintana.
0.320, 0.729 — Corey Dickerson batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279, 0.721 — Jose Ramirez batting against Justin Verlander.
0.286, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Luis Castillo.

The NN agrees with Altuve as number one, with Daniel Murphy not far behind.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Allen Cordoba	26
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Eric Fryer	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tyler Wade	20
Enrique Hernandez	19
Patrick Kivlehan	18
C.J. Cron	18
Adam Frazier	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Paul Janish	15
Greg Bird	15
Jorge Polanco	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Taylor Featherston	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Lewis Brinson	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Adeiny Hechavarria	13
Manuel Margot	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Matt Holliday	12
Leonys Martin	12
Rob Refsnyder	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Yadier Molina	12
Matt Chapman	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Addison Russell	11
Keon Broxton	11
Victor Caratini	11
Reymond Fuentes	11
Andres Blanco	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Guillermo Heredia	11
Brandon Crawford	11
Jorge Soler	11
Devin Mesoraco	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Chase Headley	11
Gary Sanchez	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Tyler Collins	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Mike Zunino	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Mitch Moreland	10
Matt Kemp	10
Miguel Montero	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Austin Romine	10
Tyler Kelly	10
Tom Murphy	10
Carlos Gonzalez	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Good luck!

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