I’ve been keeping track of Aaron Judge‘s chance of breaking Roger Maris‘s AL single season home run record on this Google Spreadsheet. For a while now, he’s been consistently below a 1 in 1000 chance. There is another record Judge is chasing, and I’ve added the rookie home run record to the sheet. Mark McGwire holds that record with 49 in 1987. Right now, the probability of Judge reaching 50 is about 0.3. Again, that seems about right to me. McGwire collected 33 home runs by the All-Star break in 1987, then hit 16 the rest of the season. The opposition does adjust. That record stood for 30 years, and held up through the steroid era. We’ll see if it falls in 2017.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sE4S0I
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