Last Minute Trades

Justin Upton goes to the Angels, with the Angels sending Cameron Maybin to the Astros:

The Detroit Tigers traded outfielder Justin Upton to the Los Angeles Angels, a deal that marks a significant makeover for both franchises.

Pitcher Grayson Long, the Angels’ No. 9-ranked prospect, is headed to the Tigers, along with a player to be named.

Meanwhile, outfielder Cameron Maybin – traded from the Tigers to the Angels in the off-season – will be headed to the Houston Astros to make way for Upton.

Upton, 30, gives the Angels a power-hitting complement to center fielder and perpetual MVP candidate Mike Trout – both for this year’s wild-card chase and, likely, upcoming seasons.

Upton is doing his best hitting since 2011, so he’s a great addition to the Angels, although I think he would be a bigger boost if he replace Pujols’s bat.

Grayson Long looks like the real deal, and should be ready for the majors fairly soon. He has good three-true outcome numbers in the minors. The Tigers get that and salary relief, too.

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Moral Victory

The Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers 8-1 Thursday afternoon, sweeping the four game series and cutting the Dodgers lead to 16 games. It proves to Arizona that they can hang with what appeared to be a super team, and they also likely prevented Los Angeles from setting a record for wins in a season. The Dodgers could go 24-6 the rest of the season, but I would not count on it. Arizona also has a nice lead for the first wild card slot after both the Diamondbacks and Rockies let other teams into the race.

Yes, the Dodgers are a bit depleted right now, but they’ve been a bit depleted all year. Maybe this is part of a regression that was due.

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Complete Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg performed from both sides of the plate as the Nationals sweep the Marlins with a 4-0 win Wednesday afternoon. Dusty Baker allowed Strasburg to throw 110 pitches for the shutout, the second complete game and shutout of his career. Strasburg also hit a home run in the fifth inning for the first (and only necessary) run of the game, after pitching out of a man on third, no one out jam in the top of the inning.

Since returning from the disabled list, Strasburg pitched 21 innings, allowing 13 hits, one homer, and three walks while striking out 23. He would appear to be ready for the playoffs.

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Fixing a Leake

The Mariners took Mike Leake off the hands of the Cardinals:

The Mariners acquired right-hander Mike Leake from the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday for minor league infielder Rayder Ascanio as Seattle tries to bolster its beleaguered starting rotation during the AL wild-card race.

Seattle is without James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Hisahi Iwakuma due to injuries and has struggled to get five innings out of their starters for most of the past month. Seattle has had just 16 starts of at least six innings in 43 games since the All-Star break.

Ascanio is a 21-year-old shortstop who is showing little offensive value at A ball. He the Mariners had to move a body, but the main thing the Cardinals are getting is salary relief as Seattle assumes $38 million of the remaining $55 million on Leake’s rather bloated contract.

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Opera Versus Rock and Roll

My daughter sent me this video about professional baseball in South Korea. It really captures the joy of a Lotte Giants game. The superfan of the team is a 63-year-old American, and his comparison of MLB and the KBO became the title of this post. Hope you enjoy it.

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Games of the Day

The Indians and Yankees play a traditional double header. The Yankees would gain at least 1/2 game on the Red Sox with a sweep, while an Indians sweep would give Cleveland a very comfortable AL Central lead going into September. Game two offers the better pitching match-up, with Ryan Merritt facing Jordan Montgomery.

Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals take on Chase Anderson and the Brewers as both teams try to stay relevant in the NL Central and NL Wild Card races.

This will be the final possible last game for the Tigers for Justin Verlander as he faces the Rockies and Chad Bettis.

The Red Sox can put one more nail into the Blue Jays playoff hopes with a win on Wednesday. Rick Porcello takes on J.A. Happ in a battle of pitchers who were much better in 2016.

Andrew Cashner faces Dallas Keuchel as the battle of Texas ranges on in Florida.

Finally, the much awaited Ryu-Ray match-up takes place in Arizona. Hyun-Jin Ryu leads a less than super looking Dodgers team against Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks. It seems Corey Seager is the one player Los Angeles can’t afford to lose.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.312 — Wilmer Flores batting against Homer Bailey
0.303 — Scooter Gennett batting against Rafael Montero
0.301 — Zack Cozart batting against Rafael Montero
0.300 — Jose Pirela batting against Ty Blach
0.299 — Starlin Castro batting against Ryan Merritt
0.297 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley
0.296 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.295 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova
0.295 — Sean Gilmartin batting against Homer Bailey
0.295 — Jose Peraza batting against Rafael Montero
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ryan Merritt
0.295 — Amed Rosario batting against Homer Bailey

It’s a good day to play for the Mets. The top two on the original list were T.J Rivera and Yoenis Cespedes, but both are on the disabled list. That leaves Jose Altuve at the top.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.297, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley.
0.268, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Verlander.
0.291, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.296, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.293, 0.724 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.293, 0.723 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.294, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Adam Conley.
0.268, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Verlander.
0.299, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Ryan Merritt.

Altuve is the unanimous first choice, with Murphy the consensus second choice. Be careful selecting players from the Indians, Yankees, Phillies, and Braves today, as those four teams are involved in traditional double headers.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Mike Trout	25
Tony John Wolters	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Steve Pearce	20
Mike Napoli	19
Tyler Flowers	19
Sean Rodriguez	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mitch Haniger	18
Allen Cordoba	18
Mark Zagunis	18
J.T. Realmuto	18
Pablo Sandoval	17
Freddie Freeman	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Curtis Granderson	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Kyle Schwarber	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Paul Janish	15
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Drew	13
Jay Bruce	13
Jose Osuna	13
Salvador Perez	13
Jose Iglesias	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Juan Graterol	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Carlos Beltran	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Brock Holt	12
Erik Gonzalez	12
Jordan Luplow	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Leury Garcia	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Steven Souza	10
Jared Hoying	10
Logan Forsythe	10
Chris Young	10
Xander Bogaerts	10
Albert Pujols	10
Enrique Hernandez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adam Engel	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10
Robinson Cano	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Jake Marisnick	10
Tom Murphy	10
Alex Gordon	10

Good luck!

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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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5 Benefits of Cold Showers

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Showering is an essential part of a healthy routine, but depending on the temperature, your time spent under the water can offer different benefits for your skin and some bodily functions too. Learn about the surprising health benefits of a taking a cold shower in this article.

Image Source: Flickr

Increase Alertness
Taking a cold shower in the morning, and feeling cold water pour down over our body seems more horrifying than soothing. However, the deep breathing in response to our body’s shock helps us keep warm, as it’s increases our overall oxygen intake. Thus, our heart rate will also increase, releasing a rush of blood through our entire body. This gives us a natural dose of energy for the day. Source: MedicalDaily

Stimulate Weight Loss
Another way cold showers will make you look better, is by promoting fat loss.

Most people don’t know this, but there are two types of fat in your body. Brown fat & white fat. White fat is bad. It’s the body fat that we all hate so much. Brown fat is good. It’s function is to generate heat and keep your body warm.

When you take a cold shower, brown fat is activated, resulting in an increase in energy and calories burned to keep your body warm. So much so that according to this study, cold temperatures can increase brown fat by 15X the normal amount, which can result in 9 pounds of weight loss per year. Source: Menprovement

Refine Hair and Skin
If you’d like to reduce the appearance of acne, cold showers could do the job. Hot water dries out your skin, while cold water tightens your cuticles and pores, preventing them from getting clogged. You can also use cold showers for shinier, more attractive hair that your partner can’t resist playing with. Cold water will close your cuticle, making it less likely dirt can accumulate in your scalp. Source: Lifehack

Build Strong Will Power
The next day was more of the same, but I noticed I had more apprehension this time around before hopping in the shower. This trend continued throughout the following mornings as well. If I knew how great it made me feel, then why didn’t I eagerly throw myself underneath the icy spray? The experience reminded me of a famous old saying, one that has been attributed to a bunch of authors: “I don’t enjoy writing. I enjoy having written.” I don’t like taking cold showers, I just like the way they make me feel after I’ve already dried off.

The week has been a success, and I’ve assured myself that I will keep taking cold showers in the mornings. However, it won’t be easy. I mean, have you taken a hot shower? It’s the best.  Source: Prevention

Strengthen Immunity
According to a study done in 1993 by the Thrombosis Research Institute in England, individuals who took daily cold showers saw an increase in the number of virus fighting white blood cells compared to individuals who took hot showers. Researchers believe that the increased metabolic rate, which results from the body’s attempt to warm itself up, activates the immune system and releases more white blood cells in response. Source: Artofmanliness

 

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Full Whit

Whit Merrifield homers for the Royals in the bottom of the third inning, ending the Royals offense scoreless inning streak at 45. The Royals lead the Rays 1-0 as Jake Junis has not allowed a hit through three, his only mistake hitting Evan Longoria.

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Record on Sale

Chris Sale set a new record for http://ift.tt/2iHF17A:

The 28-year-old Sale reached 1,500 K’s in 1,290 innings. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kerry Wood was the previous record holder by reaching 1,500 in 1,303 innings. Pedro Martinez (1,337 innings), Randy Johnson (1,365 2/3), Nolan Ryan and current Nationals ace Max Scherzer (1,394) round out the top five.

As time goes on and strikeouts keep going up, we’ll see pitchers continue to better this record.

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DUIffy

Police caught Danny Duffy driving under the influence:

Royals pitcher Danny Duffy was cited Sunday in Overland Park for driving under the influence, police said Tuesday.

Duffy was arrested about 8 p.m. in the parking lot of Burger King at 13640 Metcalf Ave.

Overland Park police officer and spokesman Brian Payne said he could not release further details. A police report provides no other information.

I used to say that players should hire a car and driver when they wanted to go out, but with the ride sharing services, they don’t need to do that anymore, just press a button the phone. While a limo might not be an appropriate ride to BK, a car with a mustache is fine.

Bottom line, players who make a lot of money should let other people drive them if there is any chance they will be drinking.

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New Record

Giancarlo Stanton went deep in the first inning in a rain delayed game between the Marlins and the Nationals. That gives Stanton 51 home runs for the season, and 18 in the month of August. That sets a new National League record for home runs in August, and ties the MLB record held by Rudy York. Stanton still has most of tonight and two more games to break that record.

The Marlins lead the Nationals 1-0 in the first inning.

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Games of the Day

Chris Sale leads Boston against Toronto and Brett Anderson. This might be one of the more lopsided contests of the day. Sale holds opponents to a .200/.245/.322 slash line, while Anderson comes in .347/.414/.571. Anderson turns everyone into an MVP. After a good performance by Corey Kluber Monday night, Sale still leads in the Cy Young competition thanks to nearly 40 more strikeouts.

The Diamondbacks try to keep the Dodgers lead under 20 games as LA visits Phoenix. Rich Hill takes on Zack Godley. Hill pitched well against the Diamondbacks this season but has not won. He owns a 2.70 ERA in 10 innings, with two walks and 11 K. Godley has similar stats against the Dodgers, with an 0-1 record in two starts and a 2.92 ERA. He walked two and struck out 11 in 12 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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No DH

Here is the follow up to yesterday’s story about a universal DH. I thought the argument yesterday was much more convincing. His argument seems to be more an emotional one, with the main focus that pitchers would hit better if there were no DH. Pitchers did hit better in the past, but they still were on average very bad hitters.

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Royals Futility

The Royals are no scoreless for 43 consecutive innings, five inning short of the record:

Kansas City hasn’t scored since the second inning of a 3-2 loss to Colorado last Thursday, and it was blanked three times over the weekend by Cleveland. The 1968 Chicago Cubs and the 1906 Philadelphia Athletics hold the major league record at 48 innings.

The 1992 Cubs were the last team to be blanked in four straight games, and it hasn’t happened in the AL since the 1964 Washington Senators — nine years before the adoption of the designated hitter. No team has been shut out in five straight games since at least 1913, according to information gathered from baseball-reference.com.

So the Royals are in historic territory. The splits for the four shutouts tell the story. The team is hitting like a decent NL pitcher, .160/.198/.208. Ten of their 20 hits came with two out, so there’s not much of a chance to build a rally. They are 0 for 18 with runners in scoring position, with only four strikeouts. They are putting the ball in play, with very little to show for it. They have only drawn six walks. Basically, the offense shut down.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson
0.355 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley
0.331 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley
0.331 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson
0.327 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson
0.314 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson
0.313 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Martin Perez
0.311 — Rafael Devers batting against Brett Anderson

The Log5 method likes the Red Sox against Brett Anderson. The system may be understating how bad Anderson is a bit, since he’s been knocked around the last two years without having pitched much.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.355, 0.784 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.360, 0.771 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.333, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley.
0.331, 0.744 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley.
0.327, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.331, 0.732 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280, 0.731 — Gerardo Parra batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.313, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.311, 0.727 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.

It’s an extremely similar list, with Altuve and Nunez the consensus 1-2 choices.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Mike Trout	25
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Tony John Wolters	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tyler Flowers	19
Sean Rodriguez	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Allen Cordoba	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Mitch Haniger	18
Jorge Soler	18
Joey Gallo	16
Freddie Freeman	16
Steve Pearce	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Joey Votto	15
Michael Moustakas	15
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Abraham Almonte	14
J.T. Realmuto	14
Mike Napoli	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Chris Taylor	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Carlos Asuaje	14
Stephen Drew	13
Alcides Escobar	13
Ryan Braun	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Juan Graterol	13
Denard Span	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Jay Bruce	13
Pablo Sandoval	13
Brock Holt	12
Miguel Rojas	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Eric Thames	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jose Osuna	12
Kyle Schwarber	12
Martin Prado	12
Erik Gonzalez	12
Rougned Odor	11
Manuel Margot	11
Brock Stassi	11
Jordan Luplow	11
Adam Duvall	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Tom Murphy	10
Jose Iglesias	10
Jared Hoying	10
Carlos Correa	10
Keon Broxton	10
Dominic Smith	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10

Good luck!

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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Four Zeros

The Rays beat the Royals 12-0, the fourth game in a row the Royals failed to score. The win moves Tampa Bay ahead of Kansas City in the wild card race as well. It’s getting worse, too, as the Royals managed just two hits and two walks.

I just tried to find the record for consecutive times being shutout. I found most consecutive shutouts pitched by a team, but not the reverse. I hope it is in the game story tomorrow.

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Two Day Off

The Yankees benched Aaron Judge for two days to try to get Judge out of his slump. Note that Judge owns a .341 OBP in this so-called slump. What slumped was his hits and his power, but since he’s walking so much, I suspect he’s getting fewer pitches to hit, and he’s not hitting the ones that are phat.

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Move to Florida

The Astros will play a home series at Tropicana Field:

The Astros will play their upcoming home series against the Rangers at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, because of flooding in Houston from Tropical Storm Harvey.

Major League Baseball officially announced the relocation of the three-game series Monday, saying the Astros “will be considered the home team and will bat last.”

The Associated Press reported earlier Monday that the Astros’ three-game home series against the Mets, which starts Friday, also will be played at Tropicana Field. But MLB announced that it has not yet determined a location for the Mets-Astros series.

Moving to a dome is needed because they don’t want these games threatened by rain.

I hope all the Houston readers of Baseball Musings are safe and sound. My thoughts are with you.

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Games of the Day

Miami rode Giancarlo Stanton‘s bat to 4 1/2 games out of an NL Wild Card slot. They take on the Nationals as Jose Urena takes on Max Scherzer. Urena has yet to lose on the road this season, 8-0 with a 4.05 ERA. He did that despite allowing 10 home runs in 60 innings. Scherzer comes off a short disabled list stint. He’s mister no-decision in August, despite a 2.40 ERA in three starts.

The Indians travel to New York with 28 consecutive scoreless innings by their pitching staff. Their ace, Corey Kluber, takes on the Yankees and Luis Severino. Kluber made three starts this season in which he did not allow a run, two of them shutouts. Severino owns a 4.14 ERA at home, where he allowed 10 of his 16 home runs, despite pitching over 20 fewer innings at home.

Enjoy!

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The Futility Hitters

Eli Ben-Porat at the Hardball Times presents evidence for just how terribly pitchers functions as batters.

My friends who are anti-DH will point out a time a pitcher hits a home run, or does something positive on offense, and use that anecdote as a reason for dumping the DH. The graphs show just how rarely that happens. I also like that DH’s have an excellent combination of exit velocity and launch angle as a group. In general, that group are not the best hitters in the game, but his shows that they do hit the ball hard.

It’s not the end of the argument, however:

It’s no secret that, as a group, pitchers are extremely poor hitters. What is perhaps less evident is just how little they resemble even replacement-level talent and the disproportionate impact they have on the batters who precede them. Baseball is about the best hitters in the world trying to hit the best pitchers in the world, not pitchers lobbing meatballs down the middle and hoping their counterpart doesn’t execute a sacrifice bunt. It’s time to bring on the inevitable and start using the DH in the National League. Or should we? Tomorrow, I’ll present the opposite argument.

Stay tuned.

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Weekly Look at Offense

Offense was down a bit in week 21 as the majors produced 9.06 runs per game. Despite home run onslaughts by Giancarlo Stanton and Rhys Hoskins, the majors produced 2.7 HR per game compared to 2.8 HR per game the week before. It was a big strikeout week, as the games averaged 17.0 K per game, the third week this season Ks rose that high.

Year over year, (all stats through 21 weeks in each season), 2017 continues to lead 2016 in runs per game 9.32 to 8.98. Home runs and walks continue to account for the difference, HR up 0.2 per game, walks up 0.3 per game. Strikeouts are up 0.5 per games, and not surprisingly, other hits are down 0.25 per game. It’s much more of a three-true outcomes game this season, and MLB may wish to figure out a way to move away from that.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.353 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.347 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.334 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.325 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Tillman
0.324 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.324 — Eric Hosmer batting against Austin Pruitt
0.318 — Melky Cabrera batting against Austin Pruitt
0.313 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.310 — Whit Merrifield batting against Austin Pruitt
0.307 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Austin Pruitt

There is a limited schedule today. Log5 likes the Rockies against Zimmermann, and the game takes place in Colorado. It also likes the Royals against Austin Pruitt, but the Royals offense is in a slump, shutout in the three games against Cleveland this weekend. Pruitt is a good choice for break a slump, as he allows a high batting average without walking too many batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.353, 0.773 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.347, 0.773 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.334, 0.761 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.324, 0.744 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.325, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Tillman.
0.286, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.324, 0.737 — Eric Hosmer batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.318, 0.734 — Melky Cabrera batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.300, 0.734 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.313, 0.728 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Marco Gonzalez.

Hit average in Colorado is .271, while the MLB average is .232 (those numbers are for non-pitchers). The Rockies players are already good, and then they get a big boost from the ballpark. It’s a good day to double down on Parra and Blackmon.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Mike Trout	25
Tony John Wolters	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Todd Frazier	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Allen Cordoba	17
Joey Gallo	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Mitch Haniger	16
Joey Votto	15
Paul Janish	15
Sean Rodriguez	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Tyler Flowers	15
Jason Heyward	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Abraham Almonte	14
Mike Napoli	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Kaleb Cowart	14
Chris Taylor	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Ryan Braun	13
Juan Graterol	13
Martin Maldonado	13
Kyle Schwarber	12
Eric Thames	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Martin Prado	12
Freddie Freeman	12
Michael Moustakas	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jonathan Lucroy	12
Erik Gonzalez	12
Steve Pearce	11
Brock Stassi	11
Adam Duvall	11
Eduardo Nunez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Rougned Odor	11
Boog Powell	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Wilson Ramos	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Alcides Escobar	10
Keon Broxton	10
J.T. Realmuto	10
Tom Murphy	10
Tyler Collins	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Chase Headley	10
Carlos Correa	10
Benjamin Gamel	10
Dominic Smith	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Carlos Asuaje	10
Jared Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10

Wow, that’s quite the slump for Mike Trout. He’s been due for a few games now.

Good luck!

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Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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There Are No Silver Bullets!

It seems every day I encounter someone looking for a silver bullet:

“How do I get my prospect to see me, what’s the one thing/trick/technique you recommend that causes prospects to want to meet?”

“What is the best technique to overcome objections?”

“What is the way I can get my customer to select our solution?”

“What is the latest technology that will cause our team to consistently hit their numbers?”

“How do I make sure I hire only A players?”

The list goes on endlessly.

Inevitably, people asking these questions find what they think is a silver bullet.  Clearly, it’s worked for someone else, they think it might work for them.

Possibly it works, until it doesn’t, sometimes it just never works.

And the search continues for the next silver bullet or magic solution.

There’s some relief in looking for silver bullets.  We don’t have to take responsibility for the outcomes.  We always have something to blame failure on–other than ourselves.

“We selected the wrong tool….”

“The training program just wasn’t right for our solutions…”

“We have the wrong people….”

“The customer just doesn’t get it…”

We go on to the next and the next and the next.  It’s a bumpy, inconsistent ride.  Things work for a while until the don’t, again, we move on.

The reality is there are no silver bullets.  Success–at least consistent success is hard work.  It’s grinding it out every day, learning, experimenting, adjusting/adapting, always trying to improve.  It’s never based on one tool, technique, approach, or trick, but based on doing everything that success requires.  It’s about the consistent execution of each detail.  It’s about not taking things for granted.

Ironically, perhaps that’s the silver bullet—doing the hard work.

We invest so much time in trying to find the tricks, techniques, tools–the ways we can avoid taking personal responsibility and doing the work.  Yet those things don’t produce results, at least by themselves.

If we shift our focus, doing the hard work, learning, and improving; perhaps we produce the results we have been chasing.

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The Starlin that Stirs the Drink

Starlin Castro may have been more important to the Yankees success than many realized. They are now 2-1 with him back in the lineup, as he went 6 for 12 with a walk in his return. The Yankees are 46-36 when he plays in a game, 24-23 without him.

Castro gives the Yankees lineup depth. He hits for average, gets on base at a decent clip, and hits for power. He batted second today, but would be good anywhere from second to sixth. The Yankees strike me as a much better team with him than without him.

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Royals Flushed

The Royals hope of winning the AL Central vanished as the Indians pitching staff shut Kansas City out for three games. The 12-0 win by Cleveland dropped the Royals nine games back in the division and 2 1/2 games back in the wild card race, pending other games. The Royals managed just 18 hits and four walks, striking out 26 times. The even hit into two double plays, impressive given the dearth of base runners.

The Indians lead the Twins by 6 1/2 games, giving them a comfortable lead in the AL Central.

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Big Slugging

Rhys Hoskins keeps slamming the ball, hitting the 11th home run of his young career against the Cubs in a 6-3 Philadelphia victory. He has now hit eight home runs in his last night games, and his home run streak stands at five. He is slugging 1.118 in that time frame.

He has also hit home runs in five straight games, so he is just three away from tying the consecutive game record as well. Think of slugging percentage as a distance, and Hoskins in this stretch finishes an average AB past first base.

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Stanton in the Record Books

Giancarlo Stanton hit his 50th home run of the season and 17th of August, the latter tying the NL record held by Willie Mays and Sammy Sosa. He has four games left in the month to break the NL record, tie the MLB record of 18 by Rudy York, and possibly set a new MLB mark. Stanton went 3 for 3 with a walk in the Marlins 6-2 victory over the Padres, and is now hitting .296/.389/.670 on the season.

My calculations give him a probability of 0.193 of hitting at least 62 home runs, and a probability of 0.000019 of hitting at least 74 homers.

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Beane at 20

Susan Slusser interviews Billy Beane and other executives as Beane finishes his 20th season at the helm of the Athletics:

Beane downplays any talk about personal accomplishments. Fiercely loyal to the rest of the A’s organization, he considers all successes shared, and he knows the checklist is minus a title.

“The desire for a championship is less for myself than it is for the people who work here and the people in the community,” Beane said. “I’ve never set out for my own personal legacy. I always sort of chuckle over that idea — the only legacy I have any concern about is my children.”

Former A’s Assistant General Manager Farhan Zaidi, now the GM of the Dodgers, flipped around Beane’s sentiments, saying, “People like me who worked for him — we want it more for him than he wants it for himself.”

There’s quite a bit on Beane’s trading philosophy and some of his mistakes. Well worth the read.

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Games of the Day

The small sample size slugfest of the day may take place in Washington as Tom Milone and the Mets face Erick Fedde in the first game of a double header. Milone owns an 8.12 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, having allowed 13 home runs. Impressively, that’s not the highest home runs per 9 IP in the majors for someone with at last 35 innings tossed! Fedde (one of the best names ever for a Washington player) allowed three home runs in 9 1/3 innings in his rookie year. He also walked six to help him to a 10.61 ERA.

One of the few good pitching match-ups today pits Chris Archer and the Rays against Lance Lynn in St. Louis. Archer is 35 K away from his single season high of 252. Given that he exceeded 35 K every month this season, it looks like he’ll blown by the 252. Since the start of the 2012 season, when Lynn became a full time player, his HR per 9 IP of 0.77 ranks fifth in the majors.

Finally, Jimmy Nelson takes on Yu Darvish as the Brewers play the Dodgers. Nelson returned to his past form since the All-Star break, allowing a 4.91 ERA since then. It’s not clear why, as his three-true outcomes have not changed much compared to his pre-break numbers. Darvish comes off a short disabled list stint. In 18 innings for the Dodgers, he struck out 22 and walked just four, but four of his five runs allowed came on solo home runs.

Enjoy!

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Hitting Them Together

Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo both went deep for the Cubs Saturday in a 17-2 rout of the Phillies. In their three seasons together, that’s the 16th time the two went deep in the same game. That ranks decently high in that time period:

Teammates hitting home runs in the same game, 2015-2017

Team Mates	HR Same Game
Manny Machado & Chris Davis	23
Chris Davis & Adam Jones	22
Justin Smoak & Josh Donaldson	20
Mike Trout & Albert Pujols	17
Kyle Seager & Nelson Cruz	17
Kris Bryant & Anthony Rizzo	16
Manny Machado & Mark Trumbo	16
Jonathan Schoop & Adam Jones	15
Adam Duvall & Joey Votto	15
Chris Davis & Mark Trumbo	15
Robinson Cano & Nelson Cruz	15
Nolan Arenado & Carlos Gonzalez	15

The Orioles dominate the list, which is unsurprising as power is their chief weapon. In the 21st century, 2001 on, the Albert Pujols era, Pujols and Jim Edmonds went deep together the most, 52 times, with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley a close second at 51. Brizzo has a way to go to catch them.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tom Milone
0.351 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone
0.348 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.342 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard
0.338 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Clayton Richard
0.328 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.327 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard
0.326 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Boyd
0.323 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.319 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Tom Milone
0.319 — Adam Lind batting against Tom Milone

The Mets and Nationals are playing a double header today, which is always problematic. Milone is supposed to pitch game one, while game two is featured on ESPN tonight. So does Dusty rest players for the day game so they can be showcased tonight, or does he give them the chance to fatten their stats against Tom Milone?

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.348, 0.781 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.357, 0.773 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tom Milone.
0.323, 0.758 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.328, 0.757 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.342, 0.753 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.351, 0.752 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone.
0.313, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.312, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.338, 0.742 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Clayton Richard.
0.306, 0.741 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Wade Miley.

Altuve pops to the top of this list, by Murphy against Milone is the consensus first choice. You could actually double down on Murphy today, but he usually doesn’t start both ends of a double header. He only made a pinch hit appearance yesterday, so we’ll see. Altuve and Nunez were hurt the other day, and both went hitless yesterday. I will be tempted to go with the Rockies against Foltynewicz.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Mikie Mahtook	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tony John Wolters	20
Mike Trout	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Allen Cordoba	17
Buster Posey	16
Joey Gallo	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Todd Frazier	15
Tyler Flowers	15
Yangervis Solarte	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Kaleb Cowart	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Andrew McCutchen	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Juan Graterol	13
Dusty Coleman	13
Amed Rosario	13
Hanley Ramirez	13
Stephen Drew	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Aaron Judge	13
Alejandro De Aza	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Ryan Braun	12
Martin Prado	12
Mitch Haniger	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Eric Thames	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Carlos Gomez	12
Jonathan Lucroy	12
Sean Rodriguez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Erik Gonzalez	11
Jason Heyward	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Marwin Gonzalez	11
Wilson Ramos	11
Daniel Murphy	10
Chris Taylor	10
Mike Napoli	10
Luis Sardinas	10
J.T. Realmuto	10
Lorenzo Cain	10
Tom Murphy	10
Austin Hedges	10
Andrew Benintendi	10
Joey Votto	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Jared Hoying	10
Cheslor Cuthbert	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10

Good luck!

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Hoskins Homerskins

It took a few games for Phillies rookie Rhys Hoskins to find his power, but he went deep again Saturday evening to set a record for fewest games to 10 home runs, 17. He did not hit one in his first four games, then three in his next two games. He has now homered in seven of his last eight games to set the record. He posted a .287/.375/.532 slash line in the minors, so he had nothing left to prove there.

The Cubs lead the Phillies 4-2 in the 5th inning.

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When He’s Good, He’s Very Good

Kevin Gausman pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox as the Orioles won 7-0. It is the fifth time this season he started a game and did not allow a run. That seems rather strange for a pitcher with a 4.98 ERA. That’s 34 2/3 shutout innings, and 117 innings allowing 86 runs, 84 earned for a 6.46 ERA.

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McGwire Gets Some Fame

I’m not surprised the Cardinals don’t care about Mark McGwire’s steroid use.

Mark McGwire gets emotional upon receiving his #STLCards Hall of Fame jacket. http://pic.twitter.com/QufSpslUBh

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) August 26, 2017

It’s only bad when players on another team do it.

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