Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.353 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.347 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.334 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.325 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Tillman
0.324 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.324 — Eric Hosmer batting against Austin Pruitt
0.318 — Melky Cabrera batting against Austin Pruitt
0.313 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.310 — Whit Merrifield batting against Austin Pruitt
0.307 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Austin Pruitt
There is a limited schedule today. Log5 likes the Rockies against Zimmermann, and the game takes place in Colorado. It also likes the Royals against Austin Pruitt, but the Royals offense is in a slump, shutout in the three games against Cleveland this weekend. Pruitt is a good choice for break a slump, as he allows a high batting average without walking too many batters.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.353, 0.773 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.347, 0.773 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.334, 0.761 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.324, 0.744 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.325, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Tillman.
0.286, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.324, 0.737 — Eric Hosmer batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.318, 0.734 — Melky Cabrera batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.300, 0.734 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.313, 0.728 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Marco Gonzalez.
Hit average in Colorado is .271, while the MLB average is .232 (those numbers are for non-pitchers). The Rockies players are already good, and then they get a big boost from the ballpark. It’s a good day to double down on Parra and Blackmon.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Wow, that’s quite the slump for Mike Trout. He’s been due for a few games now.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wVo3sb
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