Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson
0.355 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley
0.331 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley
0.331 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson
0.327 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson
0.314 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson
0.313 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Martin Perez
0.311 — Rafael Devers batting against Brett Anderson

The Log5 method likes the Red Sox against Brett Anderson. The system may be understating how bad Anderson is a bit, since he’s been knocked around the last two years without having pitched much.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.355, 0.784 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.360, 0.771 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.333, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley.
0.331, 0.744 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley.
0.327, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.331, 0.732 — Christian Vazquez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280, 0.731 — Gerardo Parra batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.313, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.311, 0.727 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.

It’s an extremely similar list, with Altuve and Nunez the consensus 1-2 choices.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Mike Trout	25
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Tony John Wolters	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tyler Flowers	19
Sean Rodriguez	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Allen Cordoba	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Mitch Haniger	18
Jorge Soler	18
Joey Gallo	16
Freddie Freeman	16
Steve Pearce	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Joey Votto	15
Michael Moustakas	15
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Abraham Almonte	14
J.T. Realmuto	14
Mike Napoli	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Chris Taylor	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Carlos Asuaje	14
Stephen Drew	13
Alcides Escobar	13
Ryan Braun	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Juan Graterol	13
Denard Span	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Jay Bruce	13
Pablo Sandoval	13
Brock Holt	12
Miguel Rojas	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Eric Thames	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jose Osuna	12
Kyle Schwarber	12
Martin Prado	12
Erik Gonzalez	12
Rougned Odor	11
Manuel Margot	11
Brock Stassi	11
Jordan Luplow	11
Adam Duvall	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Tom Murphy	10
Jose Iglesias	10
Jared Hoying	10
Carlos Correa	10
Keon Broxton	10
Dominic Smith	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10

Good luck!

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