Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.366 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin
0.335 — Didi Gregorius batting against Steven Matz
0.321 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin
0.320 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Sims
0.320 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Steven Matz
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.313 — Paul DeJong batting against Jameson Taillon
0.312 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Patrick Corbin
0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Sims
0.304 — Austin Jackson batting against Kyle Gibson

Be careful with Indians and Twins hitters today, as they are playing a split admission double header, and players tend to get rest. Gibson is pitching the early game. Altuve collected two more hits Wednesday night and is not batting .364.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.366, 0.793 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.320, 0.754 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Sims.
0.311, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Sims.
0.292, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.335, 0.743 — Didi Gregorius batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.743 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luke Sims.
0.321, 0.738 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.315, 0.738 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.295, 0.727 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Sims.
0.313, 0.723 — Paul DeJong batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.320, 0.723 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Steven Matz.

Altuve is the unanimous choice, with Parra the consensus second choice. Parra went 3 for 4 Wednesday night and is now batting .346. Due to his missed time, however, he is no where near qualifying for the batting title.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Bradley Zimmer	39
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Matthew Szczur	23
Eduardo Escobar	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Ben Revere	18
Andrelton Simmons	18
Jorge Soler	18
Tony John Wolters	16
Brandon Moss	16
Joc Pederson	16
Whit Merrifield	15
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Allen Cordoba	15
Paul Janish	15
Kaleb Cowart	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Rafael Lopez	14
Francisco Cervelli	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Ozzie Albies	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Martin Prado	12
Dee Gordon	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Cam Perkins	12
Kendrys Morales	12
Brandon Guyer	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Chris Gimenez	11
Tucker Barnhart	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
Abraham Almonte	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Eric Thames	11
Jefry Marte	11
Travis D'Arnaud	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Salvador Perez	11
Hernan Perez	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Dusty Coleman	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tommy Joseph	10
Zach Granite	10
Jabari Blash	10
Jose Osuna	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Carlos Correa	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Tom Murphy	10
Yan Gomes	10
Kris Bryant	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Jorge Polanco	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yoan Moncada	10

Good luck!

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