Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.350 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.320 — Daniel Murphy batting against Travis Wood
0.318 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero
0.313 — Howie Kendrick batting against Travis Wood
0.312 — Avisail Garcia batting against Martin Perez
0.312 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Rafael Montero
0.311 — Jose Abreu batting against Martin Perez
0.310 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Rafael Montero
0.308 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Kendall Graveman
0.305 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ty Blach
It seems two of the top hitters in the majors are going against two pitchers who allow quite a few hits.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.350, 0.785 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.320, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Travis Wood.
0.291, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.295, 0.742 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.318, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.288, 0.735 — Eduardo Nunez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.308, 0.731 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.313, 0.729 — Howie Kendrick batting against Travis Wood.
0.311, 0.728 — Jose Abreu batting against Martin Perez.
0.277, 0.727 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.312, 0.727 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Rafael Montero.
Wood is more likely to give up a hit than Graveman this season, but over three years Wood is league average while Graveman is fairly high above average. Murphy’s hit averages have fallen below .300 this season and for the three-year weighted average, while Altuve sits at an impressive .324 for 2017, .309 weighted over three years. Murphy is in a mini-slump.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Dee Gordon appears to be due.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wjv7PP
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