Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.339 — Paul DeJong batting against Clayton Richard
0.333 — David Peralta batting against Tom Milone
0.330 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey
0.329 — Yadier Molina batting against Clayton Richard
0.323 — Didi Gregorius batting against Matt Boyd
0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Jameson Taillon
0.320 — Thomas Pham batting against Clayton Richard
0.319 — Javier Baez batting against Homer Bailey
0.318 — Kolten Wong batting against Clayton Richard
0.318 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tom Milone
0.318 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Tom Milone
Richard brings out the best in batters, in this case, the Cardinals. Dejong is batting .299 with a .330 OBP, so when he gets on, the reason is very likely a hit.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.317, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Tanner Roark.
0.304, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.309, 0.743 — Gerardo Parra batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.339, 0.741 — Paul DeJong batting against Clayton Richard.
0.323, 0.740 — Didi Gregorius batting against Matt Boyd.
0.333, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Tom Milone.
0.329, 0.738 — Yadier Molina batting against Clayton Richard.
0.302, 0.736 — Jean Segura batting against Luke Sims.
0.315, 0.735 — Corey Seager batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.321, 0.735 — Justin Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
The NN puts Altuve head and shoulders above everyone else, with DeJong the consensus second pick.
The NN is in a bit of a slump right now. Since it generated a 10-game hit streak, the longest it managed is a four. It also posted two negative streaks of two games. For the year, the expected number of games with a hit is 102.5, and the actual is 101, so the NN is working well.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2g1ZjYK
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