Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — David Peralta batting against Rafael Montero
0.312 — Paul DeJong batting against Luis Perdomo
0.309 — Yadier Molina batting against Luis Perdomo
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez
0.300 — Kolten Wong batting against Luis Perdomo
0.300 — Mike Trout batting against Martin Perez
0.300 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Rafael Montero
0.299 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jakob Junis
0.298 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jakob Junis
0.297 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Bauer

There’s a great pitching matchup in Houston, with Stepehn Strasburg facing Dallas Keuchel, so the two big guns of Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy do not make the list. David Peralta takes the top spot, and the Log5 method likes the Cardinals against Perdomo and the Angels against Perez.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.277, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.298, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jakob Junis.
0.299, 0.738 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jakob Junis.
0.297, 0.733 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.316, 0.732 — David Peralta batting against Rafael Montero.
0.268, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.285, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jakob Junis.
0.309, 0.727 — Yadier Molina batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.312, 0.724 — Paul DeJong batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against Jake Thompson.

The NN provides a very different list, with Altuve taking the top spot against Strasburg, and Daniel Murphy the list as well. All the Angels disappear. Peralta would be the consensus first choice. Note that the NN probabilities are much lower than than they’ve been lately.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Wil Myers	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jose Ramirez	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
David Freese	17
Yandy Diaz	17
Asdrubal Cabrera	17
Joey Gallo	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Allen Cordoba	16
Greg Bird	15
Jefry Marte	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Abraham Almonte	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Yan Gomes	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Guillermo Heredia	14
Ehire Adrianza	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Carlos Ruiz	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Mikie Mahtook	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Stephen Drew	13
Logan Morrison	13
Curtis Granderson	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Mark Trumbo	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Tyler Flowers	11
Wilmer Flores	11
Brock Stassi	11
Tom Murphy	10
Kris Bryant	10
Nick Delmonico	10
Chris Stewart	10
A.J. Pollock	10
Max Kepler	10
Matt Reynolds	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Carlos Correa	10
Christopher Herrmann	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Giovanny Urshela	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Zach Granite	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Juan Graterol	10

Good luck!

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