Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.348 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon
0.332 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton
0.321 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.321 — Brandon Drury batting against Bartolo Colon
0.318 — Mike Trout batting against Chris Tillman
0.315 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Chris Tillman
0.314 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello
0.311 — Ketel Marte batting against Bartolo Colon
No surprise that a team with a number of good hitters is expected to do well against Bartolo Colon.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.323, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.348, 0.752 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.287, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chase Anderson.
0.291, 0.741 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chase Anderson.
0.314, 0.735 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello.
0.330, 0.735 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.277, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.332, 0.732 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.264, 0.729 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dinelson Lamet.
0.303, 0.727 — Eddie Rosario batting against T.J. McFarland.
Altuve bubbles to the top of the list, but Peralta is the consensus first choice. In a very small sample size, Altuve is 0 for 5 against Cotton, but put the ball in play each time. Note, too that the NN likes the Rockies against Chase Anderson.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wtwY3J
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