Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson
0.328 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.311 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Justin Nicolino
0.308 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.301 — Nick Williams batting against Justin Nicolino
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Garza
0.298 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson
0.298 — Aaron Altherr batting against Justin Nicolino
0.298 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Justin Nicolino
0.291 — Justin Turner batting against Trevor Williams
Although Altuve is at the top, the Log5 method really likes the Phillies against Justin Nicolino. The league is hitting .320/.380/.492 against him.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.337, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.328, 0.744 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.289, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Fiers.
0.275, 0.725 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.298, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.270, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.300, 0.725 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Garza.
0.281, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.289, 0.721 — Corey Seager batting against Trevor Williams.
0.311, 0.718 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.308, 0.718 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
The NN discounts Nicolino’s brief but poor 2017 season more than the NN does, so only Cesar Hernandez makes the top ten. Altuve is the unanimous pick, with Gregorious the unanimous second choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2veFGQ0
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