Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner
0.312 — Wilmer Flores batting against Homer Bailey
0.303 — Scooter Gennett batting against Rafael Montero
0.301 — Zack Cozart batting against Rafael Montero
0.300 — Jose Pirela batting against Ty Blach
0.299 — Starlin Castro batting against Ryan Merritt
0.297 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley
0.296 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.295 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova
0.295 — Sean Gilmartin batting against Homer Bailey
0.295 — Jose Peraza batting against Rafael Montero
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ryan Merritt
0.295 — Amed Rosario batting against Homer Bailey

It’s a good day to play for the Mets. The top two on the original list were T.J Rivera and Yoenis Cespedes, but both are on the disabled list. That leaves Jose Altuve at the top.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.297, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley.
0.268, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Verlander.
0.291, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.296, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.293, 0.724 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.293, 0.723 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.294, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Adam Conley.
0.268, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Verlander.
0.299, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Ryan Merritt.

Altuve is the unanimous first choice, with Murphy the consensus second choice. Be careful selecting players from the Indians, Yankees, Phillies, and Braves today, as those four teams are involved in traditional double headers.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Mike Trout	25
Tony John Wolters	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Steve Pearce	20
Mike Napoli	19
Tyler Flowers	19
Sean Rodriguez	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mitch Haniger	18
Allen Cordoba	18
Mark Zagunis	18
J.T. Realmuto	18
Pablo Sandoval	17
Freddie Freeman	16
Ehire Adrianza	16
Curtis Granderson	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Kyle Schwarber	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Paul Janish	15
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Drew	13
Jay Bruce	13
Jose Osuna	13
Salvador Perez	13
Jose Iglesias	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Juan Graterol	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Carlos Beltran	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Brock Holt	12
Erik Gonzalez	12
Jordan Luplow	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Leury Garcia	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Steven Souza	10
Jared Hoying	10
Logan Forsythe	10
Chris Young	10
Xander Bogaerts	10
Albert Pujols	10
Enrique Hernandez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adam Engel	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10
Robinson Cano	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Jake Marisnick	10
Tom Murphy	10
Alex Gordon	10

Good luck!

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