Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.348 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo
0.336 — Howie Kendrick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.325 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin
0.323 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt Garza
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Pruitt
0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.320 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Garza
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea
0.315 — Corey Seager batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.310 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Luis Perdomo

Kendrick turned out to be a pretty good pickup for the Nationals. He’s hitting .353/.400/.667 since joining the team, a little better than his numbers with Philadelphia. In his two seasons in the majors, Perdomo allowed a .302 BA. That ties him with Kyle Gibson for highest in the majors among pitchers who faced at least 1100 batters. So it’s a good day to pick Nationals hitters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.348, 0.775 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.319, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.320, 0.759 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Garza.
0.323, 0.757 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt Garza.
0.336, 0.748 — Howie Kendrick batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.323, 0.747 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.307, 0.746 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Garza.
0.315, 0.737 — Corey Seager batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.321, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.325, 0.737 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.

Murphy is the unanimous choice, with Kendrick and Parra tied for consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Matthew Szczur	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Ben Revere	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Andrelton Simmons	18
Joc Pederson	16
Brandon Moss	16
Allen Cordoba	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Greg Bird	15
Miguel Sano	15
Kaleb Cowart	15
Whit Merrifield	15
Chris Gimenez	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Paul Janish	15
Abraham Almonte	14
Jon Jay	14
Rafael Lopez	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Stephen Drew	13
Tommy Joseph	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Matt Wieters	12
Cam Perkins	12
Martin Prado	12
Dee Gordon	12
Alen Hanson	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jose Osuna	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Scott Van Slyke	11
Eric Thames	11
Salvador Perez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Miguel Montero	11
Aaron Hicks	11
Tucker Barnhart	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
Jefry Marte	11
Jared W. Hoying	10
Zach Granite	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Carlos Correa	10
Daniel Murphy	10
Tom Murphy	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tyler Collins	10
Hernan Perez	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Dusty Coleman	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jabari Blash	10

Good luck!

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