Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman
0.326 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robert Gsellman
0.325 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kevin Gausman
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.308 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Davies
0.306 — Corey Dickerson batting against Mike Leake
0.302 — Justin Turner batting against Zach Davies
0.302 — Chris Taylor batting against Zach Davies
0.296 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Robert Gsellman
0.294 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman
0.294 — Adam Lind batting against Robert Gsellman

Jose Altuve and Eduardo Nunez are iffy for Saturday’s games. Altuve did not play Friday due to neck irritation, and the Astros have no reason to play Altuve if he is not 100%. Nunez left the game Friday with a sprained wrist and thumb.

Even without those injuries, Log5 likes the Nationals and Dodgers hitters today based on the opposing pitchers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.334, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.325, 0.752 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.326, 0.739 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.283, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.308, 0.733 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Davies.
0.286, 0.732 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.270, 0.720 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.284, 0.719 — Ender Inciarte batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.302, 0.719 — Chris Taylor batting against Zach Davies.
0.302, 0.719 — Justin Turner batting against Zach Davies.

Murphy is the consensus first pick, and Friday had a rare 0 for against his former team. In 32 games he has a slash line of .392/.438/.688 with a hit in 87.5% of those games.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Wil Myers	26
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tony John Wolters	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Mikie Mahtook	18
Wilmer Flores	17
Allen Cordoba	17
Ehire Adrianza	16
Mike Trout	16
Joey Gallo	16
Paul Janish	15
Greg Bird	15
Max Kepler	15
Todd Frazier	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Abraham Almonte	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Eddie Rosario	14
Alejandro De Aza	13
Juan Graterol	13
Dusty Coleman	13
Josh Donaldson	13
Carlos Ruiz	13
Zach Granite	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Stephen Drew	13
Daniel Robertson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Martin Prado	12
Buster Posey	12
Lucas Duda	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Miguel Cabrera	12
Kaleb Cowart	11
Erik Gonzalez	11
Sean Rodriguez	11
J.D. Martinez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Tyler Flowers	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Marwin Gonzalez	11
Jason Heyward	11
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Andrew McCutchen	10
Tom Murphy	10
Andrelton Simmons	10
Ian Kinsler	10
Nick Markakis	10
Yangervis Solarte	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Carlos Correa	10

Good luck!

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