Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.342 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Richard
0.340 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.338 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Clayton Richard
0.335 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Cain
0.334 — Didi Gregorius batting against Robert Gsellman
0.332 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.326 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey
0.326 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Cain
0.325 — Jon Jay batting against Homer Bailey
0.325 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Cain
Herrera owns the longest active hit streak in the majors at 17 games, so I guess Log5 is late to the game. He’s hitting .379/.431/.636 during the streak, with 25 hits and just five walks. Richard is a high hit, low walk pitcher, so it is a good day for Herrera to extend the streak.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.340, 0.772 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.310, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.313, 0.754 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.335, 0.751 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Cain.
0.316, 0.751 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.332, 0.746 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.342, 0.744 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.334, 0.744 — Didi Gregorius batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.299, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.326, 0.739 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Cain.
Murphy makes it back to the top of the list for the first time in a while as Altuve is facing a much tougher to hit pitcher. Murphy is also the consensus first choice, as the NN drops Herrera to seventh on the list. Herrera is tied with Dee Gordon as the consensus second choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uHWkeD
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