Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Devon Travis batting against Bartolo Colon
0.322 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Parker Bridwell
0.316 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach
0.313 — Norichika Aoki batting against Bartolo Colon
0.312 — Justin Smoak batting against Bartolo Colon
0.311 — Dwight Smith batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — Steve Pearce batting against Bartolo Colon
0.304 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon
0.300 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran
0.300 — Troy Tulowitzki batting against Bartolo Colon

Colon is pitching a bit better with the Twins than he did with the Braves, but he is still allowing a high hit average. It might be agood day to double down on Blue Jays batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.767 — Jose Altuve batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.296, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Julio Teheran.
0.300, 0.740 — Gerardo Parra batting against Julio Teheran.
0.299, 0.739 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.316, 0.736 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach.
0.284, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.326, 0.733 — Devon Travis batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.290, 0.728 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chad Bettis.
0.283, 0.727 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Julio Teheran.
0.285, 0.721 — Brandon Phillips batting against Chad Bettis.
0.299, 0.721 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kendall Graveman.

The NN does a much better job of removing the Colon noise. Alutve is the consensus first choice, Devon Travis the consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Wil Myers	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Tony John Wolters	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mikie Mahtook	18
Asdrubal Cabrera	18
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Allen Cordoba	17
Logan Morrison	17
Ehire Adrianza	16
Joey Gallo	16
Wilmer Flores	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Yan Gomes	14
Cristhian Adames	14
George Springer	14
Guillermo Heredia	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Lewis Brinson	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Juan Graterol	13
Stephen Drew	13
Brian Dozier	13
Carlos Ruiz	13
Zach Granite	13
Mike Trout	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Martin Prado	12
Lucas Duda	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Justin Turner	12
Mark Trumbo	11
Brock Stassi	11
Tyler Flowers	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Rougned Odor	11
Max Kepler	11
Erik Gonzalez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Matt Reynolds	11
Chris Stewart	10
Todd Frazier	10
Carlos Correa	10
Sean Rodriguez	10
Tyler Collins	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
A.J. Pollock	10
Jose Abreu	10
Dusty Coleman	10
Tom Murphy	10
Adam Lind	10

Good luck!

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