Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.357 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tom Milone
0.351 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone
0.348 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.342 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard
0.338 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Clayton Richard
0.328 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.327 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard
0.326 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Boyd
0.323 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.319 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Tom Milone
0.319 — Adam Lind batting against Tom Milone
The Mets and Nationals are playing a double header today, which is always problematic. Milone is supposed to pitch game one, while game two is featured on ESPN tonight. So does Dusty rest players for the day game so they can be showcased tonight, or does he give them the chance to fatten their stats against Tom Milone?
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.348, 0.781 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.357, 0.773 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tom Milone.
0.323, 0.758 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.328, 0.757 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.342, 0.753 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.351, 0.752 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone.
0.313, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.312, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.338, 0.742 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Clayton Richard.
0.306, 0.741 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Wade Miley.
Altuve pops to the top of this list, by Murphy against Milone is the consensus first choice. You could actually double down on Murphy today, but he usually doesn’t start both ends of a double header. He only made a pinch hit appearance yesterday, so we’ll see. Altuve and Nunez were hurt the other day, and both went hitless yesterday. I will be tempted to go with the Rockies against Foltynewicz.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wfmqTJ
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