Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — David Peralta batting against Robert Gsellman
0.311 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.305 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Robert Gsellman
0.304 — A.J. Pollock batting against Robert Gsellman
0.304 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Davies
0.300 — Brandon Drury batting against Robert Gsellman
0.300 — Avisail Garcia batting against Dillon Gee
0.299 — Jose Abreu batting against Dillon Gee
0.298 — Justin Turner batting against Gerrit Cole
0.297 — J.D. Martinez batting against Robert Gsellman

There are a limited number of games today. Gsellman allows a high batting average without too many walks, so a Diamondbacks team that hits well should do okay.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.321, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.299, 0.726 — Jose Abreu batting against Dillon Gee.
0.304, 0.726 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Davies.
0.294, 0.724 — Corey Seager batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.298, 0.721 — Justin Turner batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.300, 0.720 — Avisail Garcia batting against Dillon Gee.
0.285, 0.720 — Brandon Phillips batting against Andrew Albers.
0.283, 0.716 — Ender Inciarte batting against Andrew Albers.
0.304, 0.716 — A.J. Pollock batting against Robert Gsellman.

The NN flips Segura and Peralta, so it seems like a good day to double down. There is a twi-night double header between the White Sox and Twins today, so be careful picking from those games to make sure the batter isn’t getting rested.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jon Jay	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Matthew Szczur	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matt Wieters	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Adam Engel	18
Tommy Joseph	17
Tony John Wolters	16
Alen Hanson	16
Brad Miller	16
Joey Gallo	16
Allen Cordoba	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Trey Mancini	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Paul Janish	15
Greg Bird	15
Jose Iglesias	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Chris Young	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Drew	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Ezequiel Carrera	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Carlos Ruiz	13
Khristopher Davis	13
Martin Maldonado	12
Martin Prado	12
Wil Myers	12
Aaron Judge	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Brock Stassi	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Salvador Perez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Michael Taylor	11
Ender Inciarte	11
Jefry Marte	11
Jason Castro	10
Corey Dickerson	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10
J.D. Davis	10
Tom Murphy	10
Christopher Herrmann	10
Orlando Arcia	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Cesar Hernandez	10
J.T. Realmuto	10
Zach Granite	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Anthony Rendon	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Juan Graterol	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Jordan Luplow	10

Good luck!

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